Is Bali's Mount Agung Volcano Gonna Blow? Measuring Volcanic Emissions From Space

Article ID: 682875

Released: 12-Oct-2017 4:40 PM EDT

Source Newsroom: Michigan Technological University
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Credit: Simon Carn

Simon Carn measures gas emissions from Mount Yasur in the island nation of Vanuatu in 2014.

NASA JPL; Science, Oct-2017

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Climate Science, Environmental Science, Geology, Volcanoes, Featured: DailyWire, All Journal News, Grant Funded News

KEYWORDS
Michigan Tech, Simon Carn, Remote Sensing, Satellite, Volcano,
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Newswise — Late last month, a stratovolcano in Bali named Mount Agung began to smoke. Little earthquakes trembled beneath the mountain. Officials have since evacuated thousands of people to prevent what happened when Agung erupted in 1963, killing more than 1,000 people.

Before volcanoes erupt, there are often warning signs. Tiny earthquakes rarely felt by humans but sensed by seismographs emanate from the volcano. Plumes of water vapor rise from the crater. When the volcano begins to emit gases like carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide, eruption may be imminent.

But getting close to the top of a volcano is dangerous work. Using remote sensing to detect rising carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide emissions without endangering people or equipment would greatly increase human understanding of volcanoes. Remote sensing emissions could prevent humanitarian disasters—and false alarms.

Mount Agung hasn’t erupted yet (at the time this article was written), but seismic activity remains intense. Balinese officials are beginning to wonder if an eruption truly is imminent; the people who were evacuated from the area want to return to their homes and tourism is down.

Researchers including Michigan Technological University volcanologist Simon Carn have published a collection of papers including “Spaceborne detection of localized carbon dioxide sources” in the journal Science; the article details the first-known measurement of localized anthropogenic and natural carbon dioxide sources from a satellite in low-Earth orbit.

The five papers in the OCO-2 Science Special Collection showcase the abilities of NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory-2 (OCO-2) satellite; measurements from the satellite’s sensors provide insights into how carbon links everything on Earth. The research is supported by NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.
Monitoring CO2 Emissions From Space

The paper Carn co-authored discusses how the research team has taken high-resolution, sensitive spaceborne measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide at the kilometer scale. This data reveals that the satellite’s sensors are able to pinpoint localized sources of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere—a difficult task considering the sheer amount of background carbon dioxide in the atmosphere to begin with.

The satellite uses spectrometry; the sensors onboard the satellite measure reflected sunlight—radiation—in high-spectral resolution using wavelengths undetectable to the human eye. When light passes through carbon dioxide, some is absorbed by the gas. The remaining light bounces off the ocean and the Earth. The OCO-2 sensors measure the light that bounces back to quantify what was absorbed by carbon dioxide, allowing scientists to isolate emission sources, whether human or natural.

“The main focus of the article is detecting localized, point-source emissions of carbon dioxide as opposed to measuring the broad-scale concentration in the atmosphere,” says Carn, an associate professor in the Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences. “Volcanoes can be strong, localized sources of carbon dioxide. But on a global basis, all available evidence indicates that human activities are emitting much more carbon dioxide than volcanoes.”

The OCO-2 satellite’s spatial resolution—2.25 kilometers—is high enough that chemical signals are not diluted. However, while OCO-2’s measurements are unprecedented, the satellite cannot be used as a routine volcano monitoring tool because it does not pass over the same place on the Earth frequently enough.

“This is a demonstration that the technique does work, but we need better sensors before it becomes a routine monitoring tool, especially for volcanoes where we expect rapid changes in gas emissions,” Carn says. “If we could measure volcanic carbon dioxide from space routinely, it would be a very powerful addition to the techniques we use. That kind of observation would be useful (for Agung) right now.”

Carn combed through satellite data to find detectable spaceborne carbon dioxide measurements from three volcanoes in the Pacific island nation of Vanuatu. One of these, Mount Yasur, has been erupting since at least the 1700s, and on the day of the OCO-2 measurement was emitting carbon dioxide about 3.4 parts per million above background atmospheric levels, equal to about 42 kilotons of emissions. In comparison, human emissions average 100,000 kilotons a day.

OCO-2’s sensors also measured carbon dioxide emissions over the Los Angeles basin, detecting a sort of carbon dioxide “dome”. Urban areas account for more than 70 percent of anthropogenic emissions.

“Natural processes on Earth are currently able to absorb about half of human fossil fuel emissions,” says Annmarie Eldering, OCO-2 deputy project scientist at NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena, California, and lead author of an overview paper in Science on the state of OCO-2 science. “If those natural processes falter, slowing down the helpful removal of carbon dioxide, greenhouse-gas-induced warming would accelerate and intensify. These data begin to give us a better view of how climate affects the carbon cycle, reducing the huge uncertainty around how both might change in the future.”

The OCO-2 measurements across Los Angeles were detailed enough to capture differences in concentrations within the city resulting from localized sources. They also tracked diminishing carbon dioxide concentrations as the spacecraft passed from over the crowded city to the suburbs and out to the sparsely populated desert to the north.

Bali News and Views Editors Comments:

Many people have asked me lately "Am I  scared of Bali's Mount Agung Volcano erupting"?

I answer "I have no fear for myself, my family, my 155 staff or hundreds of guests at PT. Bali Luxury Villas."


Here are my reasons!


(1) If Mount Agung erupted as bad as it did in 1963 only a very small portion of Bali, less than 5% of Bali was affected by lava flows.

(2) Although over a thousand people died at the time it was because they had no warnings or modern communications and they lived within the 12 km danger zone.


Bali's most popular tourist areas in Southern Bali such as Ubud, Sanur, Canggu, Seminyak, Kuta, Tuban, Jimbaran, Nusa Dua and Bukit are even farther away and completely safe.



(3) Even if the volcano went off worse than 1963 and and expelled a huge volcanic ash cloud the Tradewinds from now until at least March would blow it away towards the North and West the opposite direction of the major resort areas.

You can see the actual live winds at this link.

Mount Agung from my home 40 km away

The chances of a cloud affecting air traffic at the airport 60 km away is very minute.

So my home which is 40 KM from the volcano at B.P.E. should be completely safe .




The chances of a cloud affecting air traffic at the airport 60 km away is very minute.

Once In a Lifetime Event:

I think that many tourists should consider coming to Bali to see this Volcano go off, which could be a once-in-a-lifetime event.

Another reason to come right now is because a 20% 30% drop in tourist arrivals provides for easier traffic, less congestion, and less busy hotels and restaurants with prices that are heavily discounted.

Finally remember Bali is still Paradise and no Volcano can change that.

If you wish to secure a beautiful three-bedroom Luxury Villa at heavily discounted prices we are offering them for as little as $125.00 per night including private need and private swimming pool.



Volcano Guarantee.
If you should wish to evacuate Bali as a result of the volcano going off at any time we will refund any unused nights. No questions asked.

Lawrence , President, Director, General Manager, Owner