Good Morning Bali.
Yesterday on my way home from work after a long week which included spending hours publishing blogs about a possible volcanic eruption on Bali I looked straight ahead and noticed a very clear view of towering 3, 031 Meter Mount Agung Volcano .
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| 3, 031 Meter Mount Agung Volcano |
I said to my Wife Azizah and Driver Gusti "let's take a drive up and take some good Photos of Agung before the rainy season starts" since we will not be able to see it for a while.
They graciously agreed to the extra effort it would take us to drive approximately 45 minutes to the government observation post currently set up 12.4 km from the the crater, which is considered the safety zone.
We stopped at home grabbed the DSL camera and headed towards Agung .
Halfways there it was obvious that Agung was hiding it's beauty behind some clouds and we almost turned around.
Then we decided to continue on to secure an update from the very professional government scientists that were manning the extremely important observation post.
The last time we visited was two weeks ago after dropping off donations to one of the evacuation camps and we met with their resident geologist.
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| PT. Bali luxury Villa staff dropping off contributions and evacuation center |
At the the time he was in charge of watching all high tech seismographic and sensing equipment set up around the volcano.
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| Happy evacuation refugees receive some small donations |
At the end of that interview he stated that the volcano activity was not diminishing but in fact "recharging'.
When we arrived last night I was surprised to see that there were still several journalists camping out at the site.
I was fortunate enough to be able to meet and talk with the senior government representative Dr. Devy Kamil Syahbana, Head of Eastern Indonesia Volcano Mitigation Subdivision. He is in charge of the entire camp and Eastern Indonesia, which includes Bali.
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| Dr. Devy Kamil Syahbana, Head of Eastern Indonesia Volcano Mitigation Subdivison |
I was immediately impressed with Dr. Devy, a Volcanologist, who was very articulate and spoke excellent English, learned studying and working in Europe.
We discussed everything from the latest scientific readings to the hardship of being stuck way up a mountain away from family and friends .
He said when he first came he expected to stay a few days. That was weeks ago and he only had clothing for a few days.
We discussed this week's Volcanic activity in detail .
All week I had been hearing from the coconut wireless that contrary to beliefs that the volcano was settling down in fact it's getting more active each day. See article below Bali volcano: Mount Agung eruption fears – shock new graph shows spike in seismic activity
This morning I woke up at 4 o'clock with the quandary, should I report the latest negative news or just leave it because many will blame me for spreading bad news which has already affected tourism by a drop of 20 to 30%? It would not be the first time in my life they would want to "Kill The Messenger"
As a General Manager of award-winning PT. Bali Luxury Villas I stand to lose revenue and client respect from reporting the reality of what's happening right now and what devastating news may come in the near future.
Most of the press likes to use bad news to sell advertising.
I on the other hand would prefer to have good news, which would help in the bottom line for our businesses.
I also had to consider the fact that many of my fellow accommodation specialists, hoteliers, restaurants and all those related to the tourist industry, which may be 90% of Bali businesses, may reflect badly on my reporting the real news.
But then, as always my main consideration is if I can save even one life or in this case hundreds I would not sleep if I did report the real news.
I have been up since 4:30 am this morning drafting this very timely blog.
My beloved, deceased mother who gave a large portion of her life to helping terminally ill babies taught me to always put the needs of others before yourself.
The Real News On Mount Agung Eruption:
05:00, Oct. 14th. 2017
So here is the real news, according to what I learned first hand last night and during the last few weeks of intense research.
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| Government volcano sensing station |
As I said earlier current monitoring activity of seismic activity, temperatures of magna, and even satellite readings from satellites are indicating that Mount Agung is getting more active each week and therefore more likely to erupt .
"Mount Agung is getting more active each week and therefore more likely to erupt" .
Before going further, let me reiterate that even if it erupted as bad as it did in 1963 Tourists and residents outside of the 12 km danger zone. should be safe. Almost 90% of Bali will not be affected.
The government has put extra money, time and effort into installing sirens around the mountain and trying to force residents to evacuate within 12 km perimeter. Unfortunately as time goes by they are not adhering to the Govt. Advice
The longer it takes to erupt the more local residents who were evacuated are getting tired and exhausted staying away from their homes, pets, livestock, gardens and farms.
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| Farmer just outside the safe zone |
Many of them are already returning which means if the volcano erupts as it did 1963 they would be caught in the kill zone.
1963–64 eruption From Wikipedia
The volcano last erupted in 1963 in one of the largest and most devastating in Indonesia's history.
On February 18, 1963, local residents heard loud explosions and saw clouds rising from the crater of Mount Agung.
On February 24, lava began flowing down the northern slope of the mountain, eventually traveling 7 km in the next 20 days. On March 17, the volcano erupted (VEI 5), sending debris 8 to 10 km into the air and generating massive pyroclastic flows.[5]
These flows devastated numerous villages, killing an estimated 1,100—1,500 people. Cold lahars caused by heavy rainfall after the eruption killed an additional 200.
A second eruption on May 16 led to pyroclastic flows that killed another 200 inhabitants.
They may be able to avoid hot lava or Lahar, which is a combination of rivers and Lava, but many of them would perish in a Pyroclastic flow that according to Dr. Devey may flow down the mountain in minutes, killing most in it's path.
What is a pyroclastic flow?
A pyroclastic flow is a deadly cocktail of superheated ash, lava blocks and volcanic gas that can travel at hundreds of miles per hour.
According to the United States Geological Survey (USGS), pyroclastic flows are made up of two main parts.
A lower layer consists of a flow of fragments and rocks that tear across the ground, while the upper section is a billowing cloud of scolding ash.
Bali volcano: Mount Singabung in Indonesia released a pyroclastic flow this year
Years ago I visited Pompeii, Italy which was hidden from the world for centuries and finally discovered in the early 1900's
The entire town was was buried.
First they were killed by pyroclastic flow and then buried by ash.
In fact, Dr. Devy and I agree that there may be many places in Indonesia like Pompeii still undiscovered.
Pompeii was an ancient Roman town-city near modern Naples, in the Campania region of Italy, in the territory of the comune of Pompei. Pompeii, along with Herculaneum and many villas in the surrounding area, was mostly destroyed and buried under 4 to 6 m (13 to 20 ft) of volcanic ashand pumice in the eruption of Mount Vesuvius in AD 79.
So I woke up this morning realizing the longer Agung takes to erupt the more local residents will become complacent, the more will return to within a 12 km kill zone, therefore more people will die a horrific death if it finally does erupt.
Thus my headline Volcano Ignorance creates fears, complacency and possibly thousands of preventable deaths on Bali .
The bottom line if you're reading this and you know of anybody that has friends or relatives that live within the 12 km zone danger they must be educated on the fact that they could die in the near future.
By warning somebody that may be in jeopardy you may in fact save their life.
"By warning somebody that may be in jeopardy you may in fact save their life".
This is why I have spent hours editing this blog and sticking my neck out to publish the real news of what's really happening.
Again, I reiterate I am convinced that providing you are living or vacationing outside the 12 km danger zone that you are safe and may have a once in a lifetime to see live a volcano erupting.
I am so sure of this that my family and who I live 40 km away, much closer than most tourist areas in Bali, feel completely safe.
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| At all my loving family and 40 km from Mou8nt Agung |
So as always. Better safe than sorry.
To sum up my interview with Dr. Devy he stated at the end of our conversation, lately every time he goes closer to the volcano to check on sensing instruments he "gets worried" for his own welfare.
"Every time he goes closer to the volcano to check on sensing instruments he "gets worried"
Breaking News
Bali volcano: Mount Agung eruption fears – shock new graph shows spike in seismic activity
MOUNT AGUNG in Bali is on the brink of eruption and a shocking new graph shows a worrying spike in seismic activity.
Bali volcano: Seismograph shows increased Mount Agung activity
Bali’s largest volcano Mount Agung has been under the maximum volcanic alert since September 22 and scientists believe an eruption could be imminent.
Volcanologist Dr Janine Kripper, who has been monitoring Agung’s developments closely, said increased seismic activity makes an eruption “more likely than not”.
She tweeted: “There is still no more certainty with the Agung situation.
“As of the last report it is still more likely than not that an eruption will occur, but there is no certainty with this.”
However, in an ominous sign for Bali residents, Agung’s latest seismic activity graph shows a dramatic spike in volcanic movement.
The chart shows Mount Agung was hit by 931 earthquakes on October 12, the second largest amount since the volcano warning was increased.
The graph also shows that yesterday was the first time non-harmonic tremors were recorded under the Bali volcano.
A spokesperson for Bali’s Disaster Mitigation Agency explained that non-harmonic tremors are earthquakes that occur at least three times in quick succession, lasting between 80 and 140 seconds.
Bali volcano: Graph showing seismic activity underneath Mount Agung
Mount Agung latest pictures
Fri, October 13, 2017
Authorities have raised alert levels for a volcano on the Indonesian resort island of Bali after hundreds of small tremors stoked fears it could erupt for the first time in more than 50 years.
He stressed that these quakes are not necessarily followed by an eruption.
This latest graph comes after more than three weeks of dangerously high levels of movement within Mount Agung.
Earlier this month, MAGMA Indonesia said: “On average, there are still 1-3 earthquakes per minute with the total number reaching greater than 600 per day.”
Despite the looming threat of Mount Agung’s likely eruption, Bali officials insist that the island is still safe for travel.
Bali volcano update: Mount Agung has been rocked by earthquakes for three weeks
Dewa Gede Ngurah Byomantara, head of Bali’s tourism board, said: “According to information from the National Disaster Mitigation Agency, 98 percent of the tourist areas remain safe in Bali, even if Mount Agung erupts.”
Mount Agung has not erupted since 1963 when a string of deadly explosions killed more than 1,100 people.
Bali Governor Made Mangku Pastika has “guaranteed” that their will be no deaths if Agung erupts again, because the 7.5-mile danger zone has been completely evacuated.
The UK Government has urged Brits in Bali to follow the advice of local authorities.
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