Editors Comments:

I am very proud to announce that for the first time in 20 years of making predictions in Bali at the beginning of each year this year I was 100% accurate.



Speaking at Las Vegas Investment Conference 1979

Last year marked my 50th year of owning a business, with the exception of a few years sailing from Hawaii to Bali and around Indonesia.
I have survived six recessions and economic recoveries during that time.


Shanghai China 2001

Hong Kong 2004

For the past 43 years I have been making beginning of year predictions in one way shape or form on the world's economies and real estate markets through various media outlets including seminars, newsletters, blogs, social media and my own personal, very popular radio and television shows.


Radio talk show host - "Bali News and Views 2013"

For the past decade I have published two blogs which have had a total of almost almost Two Million page views.

Bali Seminar 2019

Here are my predictions for 2022 I made exactly 12 months ago based on my assumption that Pandemic Cases would Peak and fall dramatically starting in as early as March 2022. 

_________________________________________
Prediction # 1  Cases would peak in first half 2022 and drop dramatically.


Based on the first half chart of worldwide daily new cases you can clearly see that the pandemic peaked in January as I predicted.

It has been heading down significantly since then.

Countries such as Indonesia recently reported that 90% of the people on the largest, Island, Java have antibodies .
_______________________________________

Prediction # 2 Worldwide travel will increase exponentially in 2022:

UPDATE: 2022-05-28


As you can see from the chart above worldwide travel is increasing exponentially as I predicted.
Anyone who lives in Bali is well aware that Bali tourism has returned with a vengeance.
International Flight Traffic at the airport has increased significantly in the last couple months.
_____________________________________

Prediction # 3 Bali tourism may return to 75% of normal by Christmas:

UPDATE:2022-12-31

I have been advising my staff, clients, friends, associates and Blog readers that Bali would be back to 75% of pre-covid occupancies by high season in July or August.
I actually stuck my neck out and predicted that occupancy will be 110% above 2019 levels during the Christmas holidays.

There are many reasons that I won't go into detail right here but primarily pent up demand from around the world.

Especially Australians who were locked down basically for two years and needed some fresh air, cheap massages and Bintang Beers at their budget friendly, favorite holiday spot, Bali.

Frankly my 70 staff and I have been overwhelmed with a huge increase in bookings. Today days we have 100% occupancy at our Bali Luxury Villas in Sanur.


Many of these are guests come back year after year to our Hall of Fame Award Winning Villas.

My prediction of 75% of normal pre -covid occupancy by July or August came to fruition.


Even more surprising and satisfying, is that my prediction of 110%. of normal Christmas, New Year occupancy would happen has come true. As I write this letter, we are sitting with 100% occupancy in 2019 it was only 85%.

In the last few days I've had to turn down as many as 20 reservations.

We expect this surge in demand to continue into the new year.
_______________________________________
Prediction # 4 Twelve months ago I predicted "World stock indexes will make new high and then fall."

The world stock indexes which I watch daily had been rising in anticipation of an end to the pandemic.

The old saying goes “buy on the rumour and sell on the fact.” 

UPDATE:2022-12-31

As you can see by today's chart of the S&P 500 which represents 500 Stocks in America the index peaked in January and has fallen 20% since then.

See Continuation of last Five Predictions which came true.

Fabulous Birthday Party makes up for a Terrible Holiday Season in Bali

Sadly, this year we are having an extraordinarily wet season in Bali Primarily due to the El Nina. Effect.

In my 25 years of living here, I’ve never seen rain start as early as October and even intensified during the Christmas holiday. With major flooding and huge winds.

Needless to say, this was putting a damper on everyone’s holiday in Bali.

Our family simply didn’t want to go anywhere.

When we received an invite from one of my wife's best friends we jumped at the opportunity as it was only a short 5-minute drive from our beachfront estate.

The party was a belated birthday party for an extraordinary woman Maryam Putu Doliveck who with her husband own and operate the Famous Floating Leaf Yoga retreat.

From left, Ary Johnson. Maryan. And my lovely wife and she's.

Maryam is from The Balinese Royal Family of Karangasem and was raised learning the traditional dances, healing arts, and the culture of Bali.

Her skills in all of these are a big feature of the retreat.

Her skills as a Hostess were also obvious.

She and her professional staff prepared an Exotic, Bountiful buffet which certainly made-up for all the negative weather in previous days.

Mikaku & Maryam Doliveck

I soon found myself strolling around the retreat and taking photos of it’s many interesting features many, of which are result of her husband’s Mikaku Doliveck artistic talents who was an Art and Photography Professor for over 18 years.

It was a great evening meeting new friends, including one person who owned a 51-foot yacht of the same model that I had sailed from Hawaii to here

 

We had plenty of sailor’s yarns to share.

Our son Darius enjoyed the fact there were many teenagers his age there as well.More about the Floating Leaf and It's Owners

Mikaku Doliveck, owner, has been an Art and Photography Professor for over 18 years, and leads the photography tours. He has written numerous articles on Bali’s culture, art, mysticism, healers and more.

Floating Leaf Eco-Luxury Retreat http://balifloatingleaf.com Floating Leaf Eco-Luxury Retreat is a peaceful resort in a lush seaside oasis in which to nourish, recharge and heal your mind, body and spirit, holistically. 

Combining ancient Balinese wisdom with modern convenience and luxury, this Bali retreat provides a safe place for relaxation, personal enrichment & wellness. 

Unwind in luxurious villas and take part in retreats such as yoga, wellness, Bali arts and culture, surfing and so much more. 

Enjoy the award winning Balinese spa and open air yoga center with views of the Indian Ocean, terraced rice fields, and Mount Agung Volcano. 

The grounds also feature an organic permaculture garden as well as a large and friendly kitchen where the private chef will prepare delectable healthy meals, juices and snacks with locally grown nutrient-rich food. 

And to top it off, world-class surf is steps away! Floating Leaf Eco-Luxury Retreat is rooted in a deep commitment to Bali's environment; its people, and sustainable tourism. 

Floating Leaf Eco-Luxury Retreat Walk in. Float out. http://balifloatingleaf.com RESORT | SPA | YOGA Facilitating vibrant and lasting wellness.

See Video Here https://youtu.be/Zk0B3eaVQwY

Bangkok, Tokyo and Bali are top year-end destinations among Singapore travellers

Diamond Beach on Nusa Penida Island, Bali, Indonesia. PHOTO: PEXELS


Clara LockTravel Correspondent

Updated 26 Dec 2022, 3:40 pm SGT

SINGAPORE – Bangkok, Tokyo and Bali were well-loved destinations before the pandemic and they continue to be popular during this year-end travel season.

Kuala Lumpur and Seoul round out the top five places people in Singapore are visiting between December 2022 and February 2023, based on accommodation search data from travel booking platform Expedia.

Singapore Airlines (SIA) and its low-cost arm Scoot declined to reveal the airlines’ most popular routes, citing commercial sensitivities. But a spokesman for SIA said it expects demand to pick up in East Asia with the recent relaxation of border controls, especially over holiday periods such as Chinese New Year, which falls on Jan 22.

SIA’s load factor in East Asia, which includes destinations such as South Korea, Taiwan, Japan and Hong Kong, has recovered to almost pre-pandemic levels. It was 81 per cent in November, compared with 88 per cent in November 2019.

Newlyweds Tan Ting Wei, 33, and Ronda Lim, 32, who got married in December, spent two weeks in Japan on their honeymoon visiting cities such as Osaka, Kyoto and Tokyo.

Both are fans of the country. Mr Tan, who is the transformation lead at a fire protection equipment supplier, has been there for ski trips, while Ms Lim, a public servant, is on a quest to visit all 47 prefectures in Japan.

The couple had intended to go to Croatia, but changed their plans less than a month before their trip after the airline cancelled their connecting flight from Turkey to Croatia.

“Japan had just reopened and we saw friends going there for holidays. Both of us like the country a lot and we enjoy Japanese food,” said Ms Lim.

 

Newlyweds Ronda Lim and Tan Ting Wei spent two weeks in Japan on their honeymoon in December. PHOTO: RONDA LIM

They found that hotel prices were higher than during pre-pandemic times, especially in Tokyo, where basic rooms in two- to three-star hotels could cost about $500 a night. Many affordable chain hotels were also fully booked.

For others such as Ms Jayden Ong, 29, the appeal of a familiar destination is being able to unwind and explore without feeling the need to pack her schedule with sightseeing.

She spent nine days in Thailand in December with her partner and a group of friends. In Bangkok, they visited a slew of restaurants and bars, including Khua Kling Pak Sod, which serves southern Thai food in a refined setting.

Ms Ong, who is the co-founder of composting start-up Soil Social, also spent four days at Wonderfruit, an art, music and culture festival near Pattaya. “I’ve been to Thailand about 10 times and it is always a comforting place to visit. People are friendly, it is affordable and there are new districts to explore,” she said.

 Editor's Comments.

Just when I was about to put my computer down for the day great news has come out in the Bali Sun today regarding a serious problem that may have arisen from a new visa being offered by the government.

Upwards to 6,000 Bali residents who previously retired here in Bali utilizing the five-year retirement visa were concerned that they would be forced to put a large amount of cash in the bank.

It appears as I stated in an earlier article, that this probably won't happen and the government will find a way to satisfy both the new wealthy buyers entering Bali plus the retirees.

Now Tens of Thousands of people can retire in Bali without fear of having their visas violated. within several months.

This may lead to the largest rise in real estate prices in 15 years in Bali.

Posted on Published: December 23, 2022

• WhatsApp

Wednesday, 21st December, marked the launch of Indonesia’s new second home visa. The new visa category was announced in October and is designed to attract high earners to invest in creating a life in Bali and the rest of the country.

The announcement was primarily received as a positive move, enabling entrepreneurs, high-wealth individuals, and even retirees to apply for a 5 or 10-year temporary residency in Indonesia. That said, the announcement of the new visa category has caused concern for expat retirees who were left in limbo about whether or not the new policies affected the longstanding retirement KITAS and KITAP visas.

In a statement released on the Indonesian Immigration Department website on 22nd December, officials have confirmed that the new second home visa will not affect the retirees or potential retirees who wish to reside in Indonesia on retirement KITAS and KITAP.

The news comes within hours of an open letter from expat retirees in Indonesia being sent to the Indonesian government asking legislators to reevaluate the implications of the second home visa on the community. The letter, published by the Indonesian Expat, highlighted that for many of the retired expat community in Bali, Indonesia is not a second home “but our only home.”

In the open letter, contributors explained how they were anxious about what the future could hold if they had no option but to transfer to the second home visa, having already invested life savings into building homes and communities in places like Bali.

The letter read, “we will lose our beloved staff, our community of Indonesian friends, and the many projects we’ve supported over the years. Some of us have Indonesian foster children and extended families. Many have plans to lease land long-term, build houses, and travel domestically, but all of these will depend on what happens with the visa categories.”

In the statement published by the Department of Immigration, the details of which demographics the new and existing visa categories are designed for have been clarified. The Public Relations Sub-coordinator of the Directorate General of Immigration, Achmad Nur Saleh, has released a statement “in response to the concerns of foreigners who were afraid they would be evicted and would no longer be able to stay in Indonesia because of the issuance of the Second Home Visa”.

Saleh explains, “We convey that foreigners in Indonesia are welcome to live and enjoy the beauty of Indonesia, please travel, do business, invest or work, with a valid residence permit. Regarding the Second Home Visa, we emphasize that this policy aims to stimulate the property sector by attracting foreigners who are interested in investing in Indonesia”.

He acknowledged that the IDR 2 billion (USD 130,000) required to be deposited into a state-owned bank account as a part of the second home visa application might be a barrier for many international retirees who want to live in Indonesia.

He confirmed, “Our market is very clear, namely targeting foreigners who are able to meet the requirements set out in the Second Home Visa. For elderly tourists who live on the Island of the Gods, Bali, we also invite them to stay in Indonesia and enjoy their retirement here with a valid elderly ITAS”.

He continued, “We are sure that international elites will spend money here, and this is clearly an advantage for us with foreign exchange income that can help improve our country’s economy”.

Despite being referred to in one statement as ‘the silver hair visa’ by the Minister of Law and Human Rights of the Republic of Indonesia, Yasonnah Laoly, it is also clearer that for now, the second home visa is not going to replace the current retirement visa categories for the time being.

The statements confirm that the second home visa is targeted at attracting high-wealth individuals to Indonesia looking to establish a second home or new base for investments and that it serves as an additional option for some people who are looking to retire in Indonesia, depending on their circumstances. 

 

Editors Comments.

 Off the bat, it appears that the new Indonesian governments second home visa allowing foreigners to have a visa for five to 10 years will seriously stimulate the demand and therefore raise prices dramatically for properties in Bali.

The fact that these investors will not have to leave every six months to a year to renew their visa makes it all that much easier to live on the island that is ranked in the top four destinations in the world.

Bali also has a cost of living that is up to 70% less than most Western cities.

Below this article, see more information on our Bali Luxury Retirement Villas and our Bali villas starting as little as USD 99,000 They are designed to fit this need, especially in Sanur, which is now design

Second home visa policy facilitates global investors: Ministry

19th December 2022

Immigration Acting Director General at the Law and Human Rights Ministry Widodo Ekatjahjana.
Jakarta (ANTARA) - The second home visa policy aims to facilitate the entry of international tourists, global talents, businessmen, and global investors to Indonesia, the Law and Human Rights Ministry stated.

"Let us make an analogy. Immigration has developed a 'toll road' to facilitate the entry of international tourists, global talents, businessmen, and global investors," Immigration Acting Director General at the Ministry Widodo Ekatjahjana remarked.

Within this "toll road," a "rest area" has been provided that is supported with regional service outlets, he noted through a statement, on Monday.

These include the investment permit service, permit for tourism, property business service, manpower permit service, and factory construction permit service.

These services are managed by each regional institution based on the authority that they have.

These service outlets are expected to provide interesting promotions to attract tourists, businessmen, global talents, and global investors to enter and stay in Indonesia for five to 10 years.

"This second home visa is one of the entry and stay permits for foreign nationals for five or 10 years without licensing requirements," Ekatjahjana explained.

In relation to the unveiling of the second home visa in Riau Islands, the immigration noted that there were several considerations or reasons.

The first related to the fact that immigration seeks to provide development stimulus to the tourism, business, and investment sectors in the region.

Secondly, the highest number of international visitors from 2021 to this day came from Singapore. This is inseparable from the geographical condition of Riau Islands that is bordered directly with Singapore.

"Immigration seeks to increase the number of international tourists, businessmen, and global investors that enter Riau Islands while also improving development in the region," he noted.

The policy is expected to encourage the development of the property sector by making second home visa as the entry permit and residence permit facility for foreign nationals keen to own a property in Indonesia.

"Immigration expects that this policy is able to drive the domestic property business climate that has improved," he remarked.

Related news: Second-home visa introduced to foreign investors by immigration, SIER
Related news: 'Second home' visa scheme could open new jobs: Minister Laoly

Reporter: M Zulfikar, Fadhli Ruhman
Editor: Rahmad Nasution
  © ANTARA 2022 https://en.antaranews.com/news/266346/second-home-visa-policy-facilitates-global-investors-ministry

Bali is currently ranked the number 4th. most sought travel designation in the world and the Number 1 in Asia.  “Bali’s Real Estate Demand is Directly Proportional  to Bali Tourist Demand” It wasn’t long after I arrived in Bali 25 years ago that I discovered that Bali’s Real Estate Demand is Directly Proportional to Bali Tourist Demand as I often quoted in my blogs, television shows. And seminars in Bali. The more tourists that come here the more they discover as they’re driving around just how beautiful, inexpensive and friendly Bali is. No wonder it’s called “Australia’s playground”. The recent announcements of a 10-year visa from the government for those who buy a second home here and a major medical tourism complex being installed in Sanur close to our Bali Luxury Villas Sanur and we have all the makings of the largest amount of exposure ever for Bali. As with any real estate market in the world when there is a large amount of exposure and free advertising this will draw an extraordinary amount of people who want to visit here and purchase here. This is why this editor who 25 years after predicting that Bali’s real estate was similar to Hawaii 30 years prior” which led to one of the largest explosions in real estate prices in the world is now saying that this will be “the second-best time to buy real estate in Bali this century.” “The second-best time to buy real estate in Bali this century”  Those who take the time to look around will find that prices are still down 20% to 30% from 2014 highs. Primarily because of the pandemic but that won’t last long as we are having the largest amount of demand, we’ve ever seen for our villas in Bali specifically in Sonora in the past 20 years. Four villas sold in six weeks. New Baby Boomers' Demand from 25 % of the World's Population There will be a huge increase in demand from Baby Boomers like myself from around the world who are looking to move out of their large homes into the extraordinarily beautiful area of Bali with a cost of living that’s up to 70% less than their home town. They will soon discover as I discovered that   “Every Day is a Holiday” in Bali. They will have no problem attracting their children and grandchildren to visit Grandma and Grandad. Boomers will have no problem purchasing one of our brand new Bali Luxury Retirement Villas starting as low as $268,000 for a two-bedroom 2 bath with a private swimming pool and private carport only 200 meters from a beautiful very safe beach. I have been predicting that Sanur, and Bali's East Coast would be the place that a large percentage of the 25% of the population of the world that are Baby Boomers would live in the future. I named our first Villa Complex Golden Villas because of the Golden Aged Owners and Guests who would be attracted to them.   Sanur designated as Special Economic Zone. Recently the President of Indonesia, fondly called Jokowi, announced  that over 20 Hectares of land including the Grand Bali Beach Hotel in Sanur is now designated as a Special Economic Zone. What is really exciting is that this special economic zone is within walking distance of our three Bali Luxury Villas complexes This new special economic zone will be mostly utilized for medical tourism, primarily for the elderly from around the world. Boomers from around the world will come here and be treated for everything from a facelifts to cancer treatment at a fraction of the cost in their country.   The famous Mayo Clinic of the U.S.A. is consulting on this complex. If you drive by there right now you will see buildings going up like crazy. I am sure they showed this economic miracle to the G 20 leaders and associates when they came here in Nov. Largest Real Estate Boom in Sanur History: I have been predicting for years that there would be a real estate boom in Sanur from Baby Boomer Demand. It is happening right now. There has never seen more demand for Sanur Land, Villas, Homes and even million-dollar 100-million-dollar hotels than in my 26 years living here. For example, recently I had a call from one contact who has an owner from Jakarta looking for a hundred million dollar plus hotel in Sanur. Later that day I had another contact call  tell me that he would like to share with me a development plan that is taking place on the Southern Beach of Sanur which will include hundreds of beach-side expensive villas and a first-class marina. Boomers Moving from Crazy, Gridlocked Southwestern Areas: Then a few days later during a private Bali Hai cruise one person after another told me that they want to move away from Canggu, Kerobokan and even Seminyak because it has just gotten crazy over there with grid lock traffic and a dramatic rise in crime. Some of our Villa owners are reporting extraordinary rental prices right now for long-term rentals. I am receiving one to three requests every week for long-term rental villas. Couple with that there has been a large number of improvements in Sanur restaurants, grocery marts etc. and Sanur is now the place to retire as I predicted. I personally along with a lot of seniors have been playing tennis twice a week at the new first class Liga Club which has a gym, six tennis courts, Pool, and other facilities. We do not have to play in the hot sun anymore. 2022-2025 - Will be the Hottest Rental and Sales Market in History We Hope that you enjoyed this update and join me in being enthusiastic about Bali’s future, especially Sanur. There is no question in my mind that Bali will continue to be one of the most sought-after destinations in the world. If you read TripAdvisor’s report in January of this year, we are ranked fourth.   I believe we will move up in rankings this year because if you look at our competition, London which is suffering through drought and 40 C Temperatures and Cancun which is almost shut down right now due to Covid-19 we certainly look better. I will go on out on a limb with a Nostradamus Moment and Predict that for the next 2-5 years Sanur will be one of the top three or five hottest real estate markets of Bali, Asia and even the world as it returns to the 2014 prices for real estate. " Next 2-5 years Sanur will be one of the top three or five hottest real estate markets of Bali, Asia and even the world" L/B. Sept 2022 For inspections or more information you may contact me at lawrence@bestbalirealestate.com  Telephone or Whatsapp me at +628123814014 My Spouse & Partner Azizah is a successful Licensed Indonesian Notaris she can be reached at balinotarisazizah@gmail.com Telephone or Whatsapp her at ‪+62 811-3864-993‬ "Far better than you expected" Check out our selection of Best Bali Properties at our Best Bali Real Estate Web Site For free legal consultation regarding Bali Real Estate, Establishing Bali Companies and other Notarial Work Contact Azizah at +62 811-3864-993 You may also email us at info@bestbalirealestate.com    Recent Testimonials: "The owners of this company are the perfect combination of long-time international experience and in-depth subject-matter knowledge and relevant local expertise, networking and the right licenses to run this business and advice their clients. The properties on offer are at prime locations with huge growth potential." CEO Indonesian Telecommunications Company 2022.   Honesty and professionalism is everything when you're dealing with real estate but when you can also find the most knowledgeable people to advise you and help you with what you need, why go anywhere else... Hands down the best in Bali! Wealthy American Couple - New Port Beach - 2022   "Very professional and have a wide selection of quality properties, very responsive and will give you all the right advice and guidance on getting the dream home you are looking for".  Officer of Major Bali Hotel Supplier - 2022  "I have personally experienced the hospitality at Lawrences villas & l recommend them to everyone truly a great experience in Bali." Australian Hotel General Manager - 2022 "All things Realestate. Very knowledgeable for local market." Retired Successful English Hong Kong Attorney-2022   Bali Luxury Villas Start at $35 per Couple.  Stop paying hundreds of dollars for huge Bali hotel suites that are only 60 M2 when you can enjoy a massive. 350 M2 to 550 M2, villa for the same price.  You also have your own maid and your own 9 meter. private. Swimming pool. Prices are still below pre-pandemic prices for our award winning PT. Bali Luxury Villas which start as low as Rp 525,000 ($35 USD) per Guest per night for a massive private two-bedroom 350 m² villa with huge kitchens, living, dining areas and bedrooms with en suite bathrooms. Most important you and your loved ones will enjoy frolicking for hours in your private warm Nine Mtr. ( 30 foot swimming pool). “We have had a great stay in villa. The pool & gardens were attended to every day" Mr. I. H , Australian, 8th August 2022. You will also love your private full-time housekeeper who keeps everything sparkling clean all day long and will do your laundry for free (limited amounts). She is also available for baby sitting for a small fee. “Great location, fabulous villa, staff were good-all of them, pool man, gardener & security but maid was exceptional. Nothing was too much trouble & she was quietly efficient without being intrusive." Mrs. K.L ,Australian, 4th August 2022..   Fantastic Location: We are located only an eight minute walk from Sanur's famous six km white sand beach. “Location exactly where we wanted. Villa wonderful, everything you need and maid was excellent, laundry was great, always smiling & very friendly’’  Mr. P.B, Australian, 05th August 2022. Only 1-3 minutes from your front door are hundreds of low cost high qualty shops, restaurants, spas etc. Only few minutes walk from Bali Luxury Villas These are the reasons we were awarded the Certificate of Excellence and the Hall of Fame Award from the Worlds Largest Travel Site, Tripadvisor.   "Recipients Hall of Fame Award, awarded to only 2 % of the Hotels listed on TripAdvisor Worldwide." We have thousands of satisfied guests and clients worldwide. For inspections or more information you may contact me at lawrence@bestbalirealestate.com  Telephone or Whatsapp me at +628123814014 My Spouse & Partner Azizah is a successful Licensed Indonesian Notaris she can be reached at balinotarisazizah@gmail.com Telephone or Whatsapp her at ‪+62 811-3864-993‬ "Far better than you expected"