Editors Comments:
I am very proud to announce that for the first time in 20 years of making predictions in Bali at the beginning of each year this year I was 100% accurate.
Speaking at Las Vegas Investment Conference 1979
Last year marked my 50th year of owning a business, with the exception of a few years sailing from Hawaii to Bali and around Indonesia.
I have survived six recessions and economic recoveries during that time.
Shanghai China 2001
Hong Kong 2004
For the past 43 years I have been making beginning of year predictions in one way shape or form on the world's economies and real estate markets through various media outlets including seminars, newsletters, blogs, social media and my own personal, very popular radio and television shows.
Radio talk show host - "Bali News and Views 2013"
For the past decade I have published two blogs which have had a total of almost almost Two Million page views.
Bali Seminar 2019
Here are my predictions for 2022 I made exactly 12 months ago based on my assumption that Pandemic Cases would Peak and fall dramatically starting in as early as March 2022.
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Prediction # 1 Cases would peak in first half 2022 and drop dramatically.
Based on the first half chart of worldwide daily new cases you can clearly see that the pandemic peaked in January as I predicted.
It has been heading down significantly since then.
Countries such as Indonesia recently reported that 90% of the people on the largest, Island, Java have antibodies .
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Prediction # 2 Worldwide travel will increase exponentially in 2022:
UPDATE: 2022-05-28
As you can see from the chart above worldwide travel is increasing exponentially as I predicted.
Anyone who lives in Bali is well aware that Bali tourism has returned with a vengeance.
International Flight Traffic at the airport has increased significantly in the last couple months.
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Prediction # 3 Bali tourism may return to 75% of normal by Christmas:
UPDATE:2022-12-31
I have been advising my staff, clients, friends, associates and Blog readers that Bali would be back to 75% of pre-covid occupancies by high season in July or August.
I actually stuck my neck out and predicted that occupancy will be 110% above 2019 levels during the Christmas holidays.
There are many reasons that I won't go into detail right here but primarily pent up demand from around the world.
Especially Australians who were locked down basically for two years and needed some fresh air, cheap massages and Bintang Beers at their budget friendly, favorite holiday spot, Bali.
Frankly my 70 staff and I have been overwhelmed with a huge increase in bookings. Today days we have 100% occupancy at our Bali Luxury Villas in Sanur.
Many of these are guests come back year after year to our Hall of Fame Award Winning Villas.
My prediction of 75% of normal pre -covid occupancy by July or August came to fruition.
Even more surprising and satisfying, is that my prediction of 110%. of normal Christmas, New Year occupancy would happen has come true. As I write this letter, we are sitting with 100% occupancy in 2019 it was only 85%.
In the last few days I've had to turn down as many as 20 reservations.
We expect this surge in demand to continue into the new year.
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Prediction # 4 Twelve months ago I predicted "World stock indexes will make new high and then fall."
The world stock indexes which I watch daily had been rising in anticipation of an end to the pandemic.
The old saying goes “buy on the rumour and sell on the fact.”
UPDATE:2022-12-31
As you can see by today's chart of the S&P 500 which represents 500 Stocks in America the index peaked in January and has fallen 20% since then.
See Continuation of last Five Predictions which came true.
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