Bali News and Views Editor's Comments:
This morning I asked my trusted assistant what was the latest news on the pending eruption of Mount Agung?
He said they expected it to erupt in the next 10 days!
I then asked him is this is based on official Govt. scientific predictions or local hearsay?
The answer was as usual that this prediction was from local rumours.
The fact is they may be right, or wrong, because even the Indonesian Govt. and esteemed scientists from around the world readily admit that no one can predict when a volcano will erupt with 100 % accuracy.
Last week one of my managers who knows after 13 years of working with me that I often have an uncanny sixth sense with a high degree of accuracy asked me what I thought?
I said " I have a gut feeling it may not go off at all".
So as always plan for the worst and hope for the best but the bottom line is if you are more than 12 Km from the crater you probably have nothing to worry about so tourists and locals who are out of the danger area should not fret.
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Below is the latest news from a reputable local news source. Volcanic activities of Mt Agung slowing down
"Based on the record of the monitoring post, the number of tremors has dropped since two days ago," Gede Suantika, head of the PVMBGs Volcanology Mitigation, said here, Monday.
Despite the drop in the number of tremors, the highest volcano on Bali Island remains in the fourth level emergency status because its tremors quality and quantity are still considered high, he said while monitoring the mountain from an observation post located in Rendang Village, Karangasem District, Bali.
"Besides, visually, the condition in its peak has not changed," he noted.
Meanwhile, based on observation on Sept 30, there is a 100 meter-long crack in the surface of Mt Agungs crater.
The PVMBG recorded a total of 143 volcanic tremors and 16 local tectonic tremors on Monday from 6 a.m. to noon local time.
A total of 144,389 people have taken refuge in nine districts and cities in Bali.
The National Disaster Mitigation Agency (BNPB) has installed 54 warning signs at the perimeter of Mount Agung amid fears that the volcano could erupt for the first time in over 50 years.
Head of Data and Information Center of BNPB, Sutopo Purwo Nugroho, stated in a telephonic conversation on Saturday that the signs are installed as notifications for people about their whereabouts with reference to Mount Agungs exclusion zone.
For example, some signs read "you are at nine-kilometer radius from Mount Agungs peak," while some others bear other warning and advice.
BNPB has also stationed six mobile sirens around the mount after the volcanos status increased to alert level IV or Awas.
Despite the active volcano, the Indonesian Government as well as the Bali provincial administration have ensured that Bali is still save for tourists.
Most of Balis main tourist attractions are located quite far from Mt Agung.
reported by IMB Andi Purnomo
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