Editor's Comments:
Plan for the worse and hope for the best:
I hate to be the bearer of bad news that will that affects most everyone's livelihood in Bali.
The news that came out in the last 24 hours from a Singapore doctor that this new Omicrone virus could cause havoc in the next 3 to 6 months is certainly depressing.
But of course it's only one person's opinion.
So we must plan for the worst and hope the best.
Omicron will likely ‘dominate and overwhelm’ the world in 3-6 months, doctor says
Published Thu, Dec 2 20212:13 AM EST
Abigail Ng@abigailngwy
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“Frankly, omicron will dominate and overwhelm the whole world in three to six months,” Singapore doctor Leong Hoe Nam told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
New vaccines targeting omicron are a “nice idea” but won’t be practical because of the transmissibility of the strain, he said.
Experts don’t know exactly how contagious the highly mutated omicron variant is, but the virus’ spike protein — which binds to human cells — has mutations associated with higher transmission and a decrease in antibody protection.
Three-dose vaccine regimen is the world’s path out of omicron: Singapore doctor
SINGAPORE — The new Covid variant omicron will likely “overwhelm the whole world” in the coming months, according to a Singapore-based infectious disease doctor.
While vaccines against the strain can be developed quickly, they need to be tested over three to six months to prove that they can provide immunity against the variant, Dr. Leong Hoe Nam of Mount Elizabeth Novena Hospital said Wednesday.
“But frankly, omicron will dominate and overwhelm the whole world in three to six months,” he told CNBC’s “Street Signs Asia.”
Delta, the strain that is currently accounts for 99% of Covid infections, started becoming more common in the Indian state of Maharashtra in March 2021, and was dominant globally by July, according to Reuters.
Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel on Monday said it will take months to develop and ship a vaccine that specifically targets the omicron variant.
Pfizer CEO Albert Bourla also said shots could be ready in less than 100 days, or slightly over three months.
“Nice idea, but honestly, it is not practical,” Leong said of a vaccine that specifically targets omicron. “We won’t be able to rush out the vaccines in time and by the time the vaccines come, practically everyone will be infected omicron given this high infectious and transmissibility.”
Mask up and test while waiting for more information on omicron: Epidemiologist
Experts don’t know exactly how contagious the highly mutated omicron variant is, but the virus’ spike protein — which binds to human cells — has mutations associated with higher transmission and a decrease in antibody protection.
“The profile of the mutations strongly suggest that it’s going to have an advantage in transmissibility and that it might evade immune protection that you would get,” U.S. infectious disease expert Dr. Anthony Fauci told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday.
Protection from current vaccines
That said, some doctors believe that the existing vaccines will be able to provide some protection against the new variant.
Our bodies generate a “whole host of different antibodies” in response to vaccines, said Dr. Syra Madad, a fellow at the Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs.
“I do think that our current vaccines will hold up to a certain extent, with this new variant,” she told CNBC’s “Capital Connection” on Wednesday, noting that the vaccines were able to provide protection against delta.
“It may reduce vaccine effectiveness by a couple of notches, but that is yet to be seen,” she said. Current vaccines, along with boosters should still provide a “good level of protection,” she added.
Leong agreed that a three-dose vaccine regimen would likely protect against severe disease, but pointed out that many countries still have low vaccination rates.
He said omicron is “threatening the whole world” with a sudden surge in cases, and health-care systems could be overwhelmed, even if only 1% or 2% of the cases end up in hospital.
Omicron was first detected in South Africa and was designated a variant of concern by the WHO last week. It has since been reported in several other places, including Hong Kong, the Netherlands and Portugal.
For now, however, Leong said we should continue to roll out vaccinations, keep our distance, wear masks, and not be overly concerned.
Madad echoed the same sentiment. “We continue to do the Covid-19 prevention measures on an ongoing basis,” she said. “Layering it up is really the best approach here.”
— CNBC’s Saheli Roy Choudhury, Spencer Kimball and Yen Nee Lee contributed to this report.
Omicron is a variant of Covid-19 first sequenced in South Africa with cases now present in over 20 countries and on all continents.
It was named only a week ago and it will take time to understand its impact on the pandemic.
Here is a summary of what we know and what questions surround the new version of the virus.
- Where did it come from? -We don't know. South African epidemiologist Salim Abdool Karim says it was detected first in Botswana and then in South Africa where the announcement of the new variant was made on November 25.
On Tuesday Dutch authorities announced that six days before that on November 19 an individual had tested positive for what also turned out to be the Omicron variant.
However, the World Health Organization (WHO) said "the first known laboratory-confirmed case was identified from a specimen collected on 9 November 2021", without specifying where.
"It has probably been circulating in South Africa for longer than we thought - since early October," Jean-Francois Delfraissy, president of the French government's scientific advisory board told AFP.
- Why is it "of concern"? -The day after South Africa's announcement the WHO named the new variant after a Greek letter, like previous versions, and classified it a variant "of concern".
The classification is based on Omicron's genetic characteristics and also how it seems to have behaved in the population so far.
Omicron's unique genetic structure translates to multiple changes to the spike protein that might make it more contagious and harder to control via current vaccines - but these possibilities are so far theoretical.
Meanwhile, cases in the Gauteng province of South Africa, which includes Johannesburg, have gone up rapidly with many identified as Omicron.
Researchers across the world are looking into how contagious Omicron is, the severity of disease it causes, and whether it is more resistant to vaccines.
The WHO has said the process will likely take weeks.
- Will it replace Delta? -The Delta variant is currently the form of Covid that is the most sequenced across the globe.
Naturally-competing variants that evolved after Delta (like lesser-known Mu and Lambda) have not managed to overtake it in the population -- but the spread of Omicron in Gauteng suggests it could.
On Thursday the European Centre for Disease Control (ECDC) said that if the pattern in South Africa is reproduced in Europe, Omicron could make up the majority of Covid cases within a few months.
However, Delta was never very present in South Africa, so a comparison with Europe is hard to draw at this stage.
Writing in British daily The Guardian, US expert Eric Topol said it is not clear whether Omicron's spread is because of "high transmission, like Delta, or immune evasion".
Immune evasion is when a virus can infect a person who has already gained immunity either from previous infection or from vaccination.
- Is it more dangerous? -On Sunday, a South African doctor said she had treated about 30 cases of Omicron and had only encountered "mild symptoms" in these patients.
The scientific community warned against drawing conclusions based on this testimony since the patients were mostly young and therefor less at risk of serious Covid.
So far, all cases detected in Europe are "either asymptomatic or with mild symptoms", according to the EDCD.
This does not mean that Omicron will not cause serious Covid - but it does leave the door open to a rare optimistic hypothesis.
"If Omicron is very contagious but doesn't cause severe Covid (and doesn't fill hospital beds), it could confer group immunity and contribute to making SARS-CoV-2 into a benign seasonal virus, which would help end the crisis," French virologist Bruno Canard tweeted.
He added, however, that such a scenario would be a "stroke of luck".
- What about vaccines ? -Again, it is too early to say whether vaccines will be less effective against transmission or severe disease from Omicron than against other variants.
"We have to see whether the antibodies produced by current vaccines still work and to what extent - whether they still prevent severe illness," said Enouf.
While waiting for real-world data, scientists are trying to answer this question through lab tests.
But even if vaccines are less effective against Omicron it doesn't mean they will be totally ineffective.
In addition to the antibody response that could be weakened by mutations in Omicron, the body has secondary T-cell responses that can protect against severe illness.
"We think that the cell response will be partly effective against Omicron," said Delfraissy.
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