LAST DAY 2020 METAPHOR:
Last night I slept poorly because I knew that I had to rise up at 5 AM to drive to my bi-weekly tennis match that starts at 6:30 AM to avoid the harsh Bali sun.
Having been rained out two days before I was looking forward to today as it was clear and sunny at my beachfront residence.
As I drove towards Denpasar it got darker and darker. When I arrived at the courts it was pouring rain.
While driving over to my office it dawned on me that this is a metaphor for the entire 2020 for myself, my family, my company, Bali, Indonesia, and the world.
This morning was like 2020 which started out bright and then continued to worsen throughout the year with a few bright spots.
Most of us started off 2020 being positive with an economy and our businesses running at full speed.
CHINESE FLU OUTBREAK:
That all ended after I returned from a Christmas vacation Skiing in Switzerland and attended a Chinese New Year party at the end of January.
A few days before I had been reading about a flu virus that had broken out in the city of Wuhan China.
The day after the Chinese New Year we decided to go to the mall and once I saw that most of the Chinese tourists there were wearing masks it made me very wary of what was going on.
I reasoned that there may be a run on surgical masks. Our driver took us to the pharmacy where I noticed a Chinese national walking out with all the masks he could carry in his hands. Another dire talisman of what was to come.
We purchased all they had left, 3 boxes at 65,000 a box. Two months later if you could buy them people were paying up to 1,000 % more.
I told my family that we were in for a serious problem after I started charting the outbreaks first in China and then throughout the world.
As I observed the exponential growth I had visions of a catastrophic worldwide pandemic that would make many of the current Hollywood movies look pale in comparison.
For a couple of months Bali thought they were immune until March when it started to affect Bali and we went into a pseudo-lockdown.
The government began to close beaches and major tourist attractions and it was obvious that we were in a long pandemic like the 1980 Spanish flu.
While the world was having huge growths in cases and deaths Bali was enduring very few cases and even less deaths.
For a while we thought we were immune, and the government was talking about opening the Bali International Airport to Tourists on September 1st.
They began to open tourist attractions such as waterfalls and malls in mid-August.
Our boys who were on school vacation were becoming depressed, so we decided to take a break and drive to Lovina on the north coast where we enjoyed a home exchange and were within hours of the opening of the major waterfalls which we enjoyed all to our selves with no tourists in site.
Based on that goal of the Gov.'s office for a Sept 1st opening we kept our staff on full-time and used the time to deep clean and repair everything. Most villas are now in the best condition they have been in for some time.
At one Point Housekeepers, Gardeners and even Pool men were showing their support for the owners by spending their time sanding and painting owners Villas.
Then when the government cancelled the September 1st. International Airport Opening it was obvious that we had to do something and our staff along with most staff in Bali of hotels were put on half-time.
During the third quarter of 2020 one only had to tune into CNN to see the dismal news of tens of thousands of cases and thousands of deaths occurring under the administration of Donald Trump who only cared about his public image and was afraid to tell the public the truth.
Famous doctors like Dr. Anthony Fuci ,head of the disease control in America warned that it was going to get worse before it got better.
When talking about possible vaccines he cautiously warned that normally most vaccines can take 4 to 7 years and that they still did not have a vaccine for the common flu.
Things became worse and worse throughout the world especially in Bali where it is estimated an 83% of all incomes comes from tourism. With tourist arrivals down over 90% hotels began to fail. Popular tourist areas such as Kuta had become ghost towns.
In the last quarter of 2020, the government began to allow opening of restaurants and malls who had to follow specific protocols including handwashing and wearing a mask until you are seated.
Just last week they reopened Bali’s cinemas with social distanced seating. While Bali appeared to go back to some form of normality places such as Jakarta, Indonesia’s largest city continued to have exponential growth of cases and deaths. Statistics this week indicates that the hospitals, morgues, and even burial grounds have run out of capacity.
An unconfirmed comment this week printed in the newspaper states that one in every five Persons in Jakarta tested positive for the virus.
That has led to many of the upper-class Indonesians to get on a plane or in many cases hop in their car and drive to Bali and enjoy their Christmas vacation in a safer environment.
We were able even able to rent 6 to 8 villas to domestic tourists and from a few from places such as Russia.
Getting back to the metaphor just like this morning when I drove in and 10 minutes later it was raining like crazy.
The metaphor is that it is kind of like this entire year 2020. Every once in a while you have some good news and then suddenly something happens to turn it even worse than it was before.
For example, I published a blog this morning regarding total chaos at the Jakarta airports after the Indonesian government decided to enact a 4- 5-night Quarantine in Jakarta Hotels for every international person arriving in Jakarta. https://baliworldnewsviews.blogspot.com/2020/12/viral-posts-show-chaos-and-confusion-at.html
New Faster Spreading Strain of Covid-19.
The reason for this was a very valid concern as a new strain of the COVID - 19 virus has been spreading through countries such as England, United States, Canada and even Australia which appears to spread 71% faster.
The good news is that they have discovered that this variant of the disease is less deadly so hopefully they will find that they can discontinue this stringent quarantine requirements soon.
In the meantime, the government has come out and stated unequivocally that all foreigners will not be allowed to enter Indonesia beginning January 1st. until January 14th.
This does not apply to foreigners who have working or retirement visas and such as a KITAS or KITAP visa.
WHAT IS AHEAD FOR 2021:
Anyone who has been on this earth as many decades as I have has been through many economic and natural catastrophes in the past.
I have lived through three major recessions a total economic collapse close to a depression in 2009.
While living and working in Bali for the past 23 years we have endured pre-Suharto resignation riots that had most foreigners leave Bali followed by the Bali bombing which had the same effect followed by another Bali bombing.
I survived a class four cyclone on the open oceans between Australia and Indonesia which almost took my life and took my life savings along with my uninsured yacht.
Lately we have also endured the effects of horrific earthquakes on Neighbour Islands of Sulawesi and Lombok.
We even endured the adverse tourism affects of a once in a lifetime eruption of Bali’s main volcano Mount Agung
ALWAYS LOOKS THE WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER:
What I have learned through all this chaos my long life is that it always looks the worse before it gets better.
A few weeks ago, I told my family that I think the bottom of this crises has been reached and it was going to improve from there.
A short time after that two major vaccines were approved that have up to 90% effective rate and are being distributed throughout the world as we talk.
It is estimated by the first or second quarter that they will have a major effect slowing and inverting the curve of deaths caused by this virus throughout the world.
The top experts predict that by the summer we may have heard community which means that over 70% of the population of the world will have received vaccination or already endured COVID - 19 so that they cannot be infected again.
So, as I said to my family and my friends a few weeks ago I believe the bottom has been hit and even this recent new strain will not cause a major change in the overall direction of overcoming COVID - 19.
This up trend should begin to go exponential by the end of the first or second quarter of 2021. Just in time for high season.
As I said earlier this year “Bali is still Paradise no act of violence, natural or manmade disaster or Pandemic will ever change that”.
I personally am going to start planning trips which had to be cancelled last summer to go to places such as England, Scotland, Ireland, and Canada on an around the world trip to celebrate a special birthday that I had to cancel this year.
The one philosophy that has helped me through my entire life when chaos has struck with her economically physically and emotionally is the famous scene from Napoleon Hill.
EQUAL OR GREATER BENEFITS DERIVED FROM PANDEMIC.
There are already some equal or greater benefits from the worse pandemic of our lifetimes.
The world got rid of one of the most dangerous poor excuse for a leader, Donald Trump, because primarily of the way he mishandled Coronavirus.
I will tell you what if he would have been put back in power for another four years he could have permanently damaged the world by not following any environmentally friendly protocols.
He could have destroyed America's reputation for ever. Right now, it is heavily tarnished and needs a good strong, conservative, ethical leader to bring it back. Hopefully the Bidden, Harris ticket is a solution.
NEW TECHNOLOGY : Scientists may have discovered technology that not only can create a vaccine in record time but also a vaccine for other diseases.
SLOW DOWN AND SMELL THE ROSES:
During the past 10 months many of us throughout the world have Slowed down our hectic lives and rediscovered our families, our hobbies, sports, and recreation plus added some new talents.
If there are places you wanted to travel to before, but the costs were too prohibitive, now is your opportunity enjoy the seed of the equal or greater benefit created from this pandemic as hotels around the world had to drop their prices by as much as 70%.
In Bali right now you can stay at a five-star hotel or our Bali Luxury Villas for as little as forty dollars a night.
Other costs such as transportation, massages, salons are all significantly lower as well.
BALI REAL ESTATE SELLING at 20%to 50% DISCOUNTS:
This means when they sell the property in the future they will make 20% to 50% more when things return to normal.
This pandemic has encouraged me to come out of semi retirement and re-stoke our real estate division with a brand-new high tech website BEST BALI REAL ESTATE and a special section called BALI DISTRESSES PROPERTIES selling for 20% to 50% off January 2020 prices.
We have already sold a few of these the last couple of months and are expecting to sell a lot more in the coming months.
So, I hope that my prediction comes true and you and your loved ones will have a happier, more prosperous year while having “More fun in Twenty-One”.
Cheers, Azizah, Lawrence, and Team at
PT. Bali Affordable Lifestyles International who manage PT. Bali Luxury Villas, and Best Bali Real Estate & Bali Luxury Retirement Villas.