Bali and world news and views editor's comments:
Unfortunately for my Ozzy friends the Australian dollar is doing exactly what I expected it to do. I predicted several weeks ago that it would fall.
My primary reason for predicting a fall for the Australian dollar is because I predicted a fall in Australian real estate prices over a year ago.
I also predicted several weeks ago the Australian stock market would fall for the same reason.
Unfortunately 2019 does not look very promising for most of Australia with the exception of Perth which I'm still neutral on although I am Receiving some conflicting feedback while I am here.
As real estate in Major cities such as Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane fall even faster in 2019 many banks will run into problems with overleveraged homes which will be worth less than the loans they have on them.
Unfortunately many homeowners will be foreclosed on. In the end it may lead to a failure of some banks which of course is not good for the Australian economy and especially the Australian dollar.
So the bottom line what should you do? You definitely don't want to be buying Australian dollars and if you have them probably trade them for your Euro's, Canadian dollar or Swiss Franc.
If you have a Australian real estate you should definitely get out now before another 10 to 20% drop.
The exponential curve has just begun. Before it's over it's going to be a nightmare.
Those of you that have not sold should get out as quickly as possible and put your money into greener pastures such as Bali where we've already had our first downturn in over 100 years and prices are selling for 30 to 50% off.
See details of my free investment seminars for Bali real estate starting on January 17 and 19th below this following article. Happy new year
AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 31-Jan. 4 2019 – Aussie closes year miserable year on a whimper
AUD/USD Forecast Dec. 31-Jan. 4 2019 – Aussie closes year miserable year on a whimper
BY KENNY FISHER PUBLISHED: DEC 29, 2018 17:38 GMT | LAST MODIFIED: DEC 29, 2018 18:38 GMT
In an abbreviated Christmas week, the Australian dollar showed little net change. The lack of movement was in contrast to the sharp declines of the previous week, when the currency dived almost 2 percent. There are just two events this week. Here are the highlights of the week and an updated technical analysis for AUD/USD.
The Aussie has declined 3.8% in December, as market turmoil has dampened risk appetite and pushed the currency lower. The pair has plunged some 9.8% in 2018 and is in danger of breaking below the symbolic 0.70 line, which has held since February 2016. With the global trade war continuing, January could bring further headwinds for the Aussie, a commodity currency which is sensitive to geopolitical conditions.
AUD/USD daily graph with support and resistance lines on it. Click to enlarge:
Private Sector Credit: Sunday, 19:30. Borrowing levels continue to grow steadily, with gains of 0.4% in the past two months. An identical gain is expected in the November release.
Commodity Prices: Wednesday, 00:30. Commodity prices reflect the strength of the export sector. The indicator continues to strengthen and improved to 14.9% in December. Will the positive trend continue in January?
*All times are GMT
AUD/USD Technical Analysis
AUD/USD posted gains early in the week but the currency then retracted. With the pair showing limited movement last week, our technical analysis remains largely unchanged.
Technical lines from top to bottom:
0.7501 was a strong resistance line in the first quarter of 2018.
The round number of 0.74 was the high point reached at the wake of December. Next is 0.7340, which the pair breached in late November.
0.7315 was a swing high seen in late September and has strengthened in resistance as AUD/USD has lost ground in Q4.
Further down, 0.7240 separated ranges in September and in October. 0.7190 marked a low point in the first week of December.
Lower, 0.7165 was a swing low after a recovery in mid-November. 0.7085 (mentioned last week), was a low point in September. It is providing resistance above the round number of 0.70.
Close by is the support level of 0.6970, which played a role back in January 2017. Below, 0.6825 supported the pair in late 2016 and early 2017.
0.6775 is the next support level. Below, 0.6686 was an important cap back in January 2000.
0.6532 is the final support level for now.
I am bearish on AUD/USD
Following a dismal December, traders shouldn’t expect glad tidings for the Aussie. The rough ride could continue, as investor risk apprehension remains high after sharp volatility on global equity markets. The shutdown of the U.S government could further sour investor sentiment, making risk currencies like the Australian dollar less attractive.
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- Why this is the second-best time to buy this century.
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Seating is very limited for these free seminars so please avoid disappointment and make reservations A.S.A.P. Click Here For a Reservation Or Email: seminarsptbali@gmail.com or Tel: Office: 62-361- 284069 – Bahasa Indonesia 62-8123632177
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