Monday, 2 October 2017

Agung Eruption may be small this time according to

It could be the eruption of Gunung Agung this time is small

Bali News and Views Editor's Comments:

Current Status of Mount Agung Volcano

This morning I asked my trusted assistant what was the latest news on the pending eruption of Mount Agung?

He said they expected it to erupt in the next 10 days!

 I then asked him is this is based on official Govt. scientific predictions or local hearsay?

The answer was as usual that this prediction was from local rumours.

The fact is they may be right, or wrong, because even the Indonesian Govt. and esteemed scientists from around the world readily admit that no one can predict when a volcano will erupt with 100 % accuracy.

May Not Erupt at All:

Last week one of my managers who knows after 13 years of working with me that I often have an uncanny sixth sense with a high degree of accuracy asked me what I thought?

 I said " I have a gut feeling it may not go off at all".

So as always plan for the worst and hope for the best but the bottom line is if you are more than 12 Km from the crater you probably have nothing to worry about so tourists and locals who are out of the danger area should not fret.

Bali & World News & Views Blogs on this subject:

Below is the latest news from a reputable local news source. 

Please ignore the translation as it was done by google translate.

It could be the eruption of Gunung Agung this time is small

KARANGASEM, | When the movement of magma in Mount Agung Karangasem continue to rise to the surface through the stomach of Mount Agung. This is marked by the expansion of the hot area in the crater of the mountain which has now risen and continues to grow.
This condition is known based on remote observations via satellite sensing. The area of ​​the hot area is now reached 100 meters on the east side of the total area of ​​100 meters. "Gas magma rises and heats up on the east side of the crater of Mount Agung," said Head of East Riau Fire Mitigation PVMBG Devil Kamil Syahbana in Karangasem, Sunday (1/10).
According to him, the current movement of magma to the surface is still stuck hard rocks. Until now there is no tool that can detect how long the magma can penetrate the hard rocks. If the hard rock is easily penetrated then the estimated eruption will be very large.
Conversely, if there is magma accumulation but hard rocks can only be penetrated slowly then the strength will be smaller and the eruption will be smaller. "It's just that we can not predict when magma will penetrate the rocks because there is no tool for medeteksinya," he said.
Currently slowly but surely, the gas keeps out of the eastern bagin crater. 
If the drive from below remains strong then the eruption will be great. 
But if the thrust from the bottom gets weaker then the eruption will get smaller or even the eruption does not exist. In fact, the movement of magma up to reach 100 meters to the surface. With temperatures in excess of 600 to 800 degrees celsius then magma can easily penetrate the rocks so the potential eruption remains. Problem big size until now can not be predicted. (yn)

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