Lawrence Bellefontaine Publisher |
Below is an exact copy of the blog in regards to my theory that offshore earthquakes may be triggered by close proximity of the moon which in turn generates higher than normal tides.
Update: Nov 26 th. 2016 -
This Blog has gone viral. Now over 132,251 pageviews
A normal Bali News and Views Blog only has around 100 pageviews.
Captain Lawrence Bellefontaine |
June 11th. 2016 - Lawrence Bellefontaine Posted
"Last Thursday at 12:13 a 6.2 earthquake went off 300 km off of Bali and shook my office building violently.
Using his several years of engineering education and 40 years of sailing he reasoned, " that large volumes of water moving from one part of the ocean to another part of the ocean exerts extra pressure on various areas of the Technonic plates that surround Bali and other places around the world".
He went on the Internet and found studies that confirm his theory that higher than normal tides can trigger earthquakes.
According to his research The weight added by water at high tide can trigger movement close to land in earthquake faults that are already active, according to new global analysis.
"The importance of this work is to understand what stresses are needed to trigger a fault and this is one step of many that are needed to do that," Elizabeth Cochran, the lead author of the study told LiveScience.
The study looked at data, taken from a Harvard database, of 2,000 earthquakes with magnitudes of 5.5 or higher in places where one piece of Earth's crust dives beneath another.
The surface of the Earth is not unbroken; rather it is divided into several large plates that move around on top of the planet. Wherever these plates come together there are faults. When a piece of ocean crust runs into a piece of continental crust, it is pushed beneath the lighter continent. Pressure builds. The release of pressure along a fault is what makes earthquakes.
The faults examined for the study, detailed recently in the online version of the journal Science, were near the surface and not far offshore, so that tides provide an increase and decrease in pressure due to the amount of water covering them.
"Large tides have a significant effect in triggering earthquakes," Cochran said. "The earthquakes would have happened anyway, but they can be pushed sooner or later by the stress fluctuations of the tides."
Because of gravity, the side of the Earth closest to the moon has a bulge of water. As our planet rotates the water on the opposite side, furthest from the gravity of the moon, essentially attempts to escape Earth's surface and creates a second high tide.
Another example of this force, called inertia, is how you feel when a car speeds around a corner. Although the car is going in a different direction, you are thrown against the door because your body is trying to continue in the same direction as before. On the remaining two sides, the forces of gravity and inertia even out and the water is neither trying to escape nor being pulled toward the moon, resulting in low tides.
A computer program developed by co-researcher Professor Sachiko Tanaka models how the Earth responds to the Moon and the addition of water weight, as well as a model of the ocean floor.
"The program is an important part and why only in the last few years have we been able to do this (research)," Cochran said. "This is the first study that has been able to take into account the amplitude of the tides."
Cochran said larger tides have a higher chance of triggering an earthquake on an active shallow fault near land, compared with regions where tides are less severe.- See more at: http://www.livescience.com/41-high-tides-trigger-earthquakes.html#sthash.leXmc2NB.dpuf
Bellefontaine even had a French magazine contact him and asked for permission to rewrite the blog in their magazine.
As Bellefontaine says, "I had no idea that so many people would pick up on this, but I'm glad they did. If can save one restaurant owner or shop owner that has a beachfront location to prevent their valuable chairs, tables, and other items from being swept away with the coming high tides late in June or early July then it was all worth the effort".
As he says "If you I can help prevent serious injury or possibly even death from people being swept away unknowingly during these exceptional King tides then it was all worth the effort".
On June 12th he posted "Beware of coming Bali super spring tides and possible earthquakes".
He went on to say " The highest spring tides reached under normal meteorological conditions (the spring tides) take place when the Moon and Sun are directly aligned with respect to Earth.
Assuming that I and researchers who did a study utilizing Harvard university data on spring tides are correct that higher than normal tides can cause earthquakes last Thursday's 6.2 earthquake was triggered by an exceptionally high spring tide.
The question is are there any more spring tides expected in the near future?
The answer, unfortunately, is yes and even bigger than the one last week.
As a former yacht Capt. with my his yacht and charter service for five years in Bali when he first arrived here, he has years of experience and knowledge of Bali's waters and wanted to warn the public "that Bali's channels can be some of the most dangerous in the world, if you don't understand what's going on".
He Explains: "Every day the tide changes twice a day and vast amounts of water flow up and down the Bandung Strait between Bali and Lombok. As the huge amounts of water get squeezed between Lombok and Bali it increases the velocity making for some of the strongest currents in the world.
"Beachfront shop and restaurant owners should close for a few hours and have to be careful to protect their belongings when higher than normal tides are predicted".
Ku De Ta June 9th 2016 |
Reminiscing he recalls "I remember sailing off of Lombok with the engine on full power and not moving as the tide shifted and I knew that my hull speed was at least 8 knt. or perhaps even more with the engine and no current".
Bellefontaine continues "I hope the Bali government not only posts warning signs during these high tides on the beach, but also has their lifeguards are out in force to insist that no one enter the water, especially during the two or three hours when tides are there highest.
Rip currents during this time can suck somebody out and they'll never be able to swim back in. So don't be a hero and don't push the envelope".
So perhaps individuals should trust Capt. Lawrence and follow his philosophy . "Better safe than sorry".
He also warns " More important. I hope that these high tides don't trigger another earthquake which could cause a tsunami.
Frankly, understanding physics and pressures I believe there is a good chance that the last last King tide, on June 9th., probably triggered the 6.2 earthquake offshore thus releasing the pressure.
Therefore, there is probably less of a chance of another earthquake than before because the pressure has been released.
Let's pray that I'm right. But if an earthquake is generated and you feel it here in Bali, although it may seem small here you must remember it could be 50 to 300 km away and if you feel a 4 pointer here it could be 6-7 point offshore.
We could have a tsunami as we did that wiped out and killed over a hundred thousand people last decade in Sumatra and Thailand.
He finally warns "So be aware and beware"
Please share this information with anyone you know, especially if they live and work here in Bali or are visiting to be careful, especially during tides above 2.2 meters
When asked if tourists should change their travel plans to Bali based on these warnings ? He replies "Absolutely not".
He also add's "Tourists coming to Bali during the next two months should not be concerned about super tides as history shows Bali is pretty immune to major earthquakes and tsunamis.
Tourists should be warned by hotel management and travel agencies to stay from the beaches a few hours each day of the 6-8 days that we do have high tides the next couple months.
Stay Safe" Captain Lawrence
___________________________________________________________Updates :
No comments:
Post a Comment