Monday, January 14, 2019

China Posts Record Trade Totals for 2018

Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg


Chinese trade slumped in December, with the unexpected fall in both exports and imports showing that the effects of the trade war and economic slowdown are becoming clear.


Exports in dollar terms fell 4.4 percent from a year earlier, while imports dropped 7.6 percent. Both were the worst result since 2016, and were much worse than expected.
For the whole of 2018, the picture was rosier - exports rose by 9.9 percent in 2018 in dollar terms to $2.48 trillion, while imports surged 15.8 percent last year, leaving a trade surplus of $351.8 billion, the customs administration said Monday.
Key Insights
"Markets should focus on the exports as it’s directly linked to China’s industrial production, employment and GDP," said Lu Ting, Chief China economist at Nomura Holdings Inc. in Hong Kong. "A sharp contraction of exports could point to a much weaker IP growth and a rapidly rising unemployment rate, he said, before the monthly data was released but after the annual data was announced.
Negotiators from China and the U.S. expressed optimism after mid-level talks wrapped in Beijing last week, bringing some temporary relief to global investors. Chinese Vice Premier Liu He is scheduled to visit the U.S. for the next round of talks in late January, but a pathway to a lasting resolution remains unclear
"While we don’t expect China and the U.S. to reach a grand deal before March 2019, we see 50 percent chance of some progress and further delays in additional tariffs," UBS economists Ning Zhang and WangTao wrote in a recent note. "That said, due to persistent threat of higher tariffs and other related uncertainties, the positive impact of further tariff delays on overall economic growth will be limited."
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China’s policy makers have rolled out measures to support the domestic economy including more accommodative monetary and fiscal policies, as evidence mounts of the worsening slowdown
Stabilizing trade is one of the goals the leadership set for 2019, on top of supporting employment, investment and the finance sector
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