Bali news and views editor's comments:
I am beginning to believe that there's a strong chance that the U.S .dollar may begin a long and perhaps even rapid down turn after years of increases.
Several headlines have caught my attention the last couple weeks which lead me to this conclusion.
One is that the U.S. economy has slowed down, which would take pressure off the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates, which normally drives the dollar up.
Another is that foreign countries are beginning to reduce their buying of U.S. Treasury bills and bonds which is another factor for the American dollar going up for years.
Trump is messing with China every day. China is the largest holder of U.S. treasuries, or in other words the largest holder of American credit.
If China finally gets upset with Trump's trade war they may decide to retaliate against America and not only stop buying Treasury instruments but also selloff a large portion of what they have. If China decides to pull out the U.S. dollar would collapse overnight.
Yesterday Russia's Pres. Putin made a statement that sanctions from America against Russia are forcing him to consider getting away from the U.S. dollar for trading and using the Russian Ruble. He mentioned that for example a large purchase by jet fighters by Turkey recently was made with Russian Rubles not U.S. dollars.
Finally it appears that the F.B.I. investigation into Donald Trump's possible involvement in Russian meddling in the 2016 election may be coming to a head. If this investigation concludes that Trump, his son-in-law or close associates were involved it could lead to a major selloff in the U.S. dollar.
I'm not 100% bearish yet but everything is starting to fall into place.
When the U.S. dollar falls you will want to get out of U.S.D. and buy things such as silver, gold or platinum and Bali Real Estate. You will want to buy foreign currencies such as the Indonesian Rupiah, Canadian dollar and perhaps even the Chinese Yuan.
Anyways all good for Bali because airplane fares to Bali are priced in dollars if the dollar is strong it costs more for non-Americans to travel to Bali.
Most hotel prices on the Internet for Bali are also priced in dollars so when the dollar falls it will cost less for non-Americans to stay at hotels and villas such as our Bali luxury villas in Sanur.
So let's pray for a fall in the U.S. dollar, which in my personal opinion shouldn't be anywhere near the value that it is.
With the America over $21 trillion in debt to the world why are people still buying their currency. They are in essence bankrupt.
Posted Wednesday, November 28, 2018 by Shain Vernier • 1 min read
FED Chair Jerome Powell's Speech Has The USD Index Off Of Daily Highs.
Today’s positive U.S. GDP report brought a “cautious optimism” to the USD Index ahead of FED Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech. Powell has now taken the stage and sentiment has completely changed. The Greenback is slipping against the majors and December USD Index futures are falling toward several daily support levels.
Noon EST marked the beginning of Powell’s commentary. If you haven’t yet checked out the FX Leaders economic calendar, be sure to do so. It is a fantastic tool for monitoring important economic events such as Powell’s speech in real-time.
December USD Index Futures: Technical Outlook
A dovish commentary from Powell has the December USD Index on its back foot. Alluding to the fact that interest rates remain below “neutral,” the USD is backpedaling while gold and the equities indices have lept to the bull.
December USD Index Futures (DX), Daily Chart
If the intraday correction in this market continues, two support levels will come into play during the late-U.S. session:
Support(1): Daily SMA, 96.565
Support(2): Bollinger MP, 96.485
Bottom Line: The CME FEDWatch Index has adjusted its expectations for a December rate hike upward to 79.2% from last week’s levels. This is a bit counterintuitive to Powell’s statements today, suggesting that there is no “definite plan” for monetary policy moving forward. In any case, the USD Index remains in bullish territory, trading near yearly highs.
For the remainder of the session, I will have buy orders queued up from above daily support at 96.575. This trade is good for 25 ticks using a static 1:1 risk vs reward scenario.
___________________________________
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If the intraday correction in this market continues, two support levels will come into play during the late-U.S. session:
Support(1): Daily SMA, 96.565
Support(2): Bollinger MP, 96.485
Bottom Line: The CME FEDWatch Index has adjusted its expectations for a December rate hike upward to 79.2% from last week’s levels. This is a bit counterintuitive to Powell’s statements today, suggesting that there is no “definite plan” for monetary policy moving forward. In any case, the USD Index remains in bullish territory, trading near yearly highs.
For the remainder of the session, I will have buy orders queued up from above daily support at 96.575. This trade is good for 25 ticks using a static 1:1 risk vs reward scenario.
___________________________________
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