Often we know the weather better than a weatherman.
The main reason the Bali airport closed for three days this week was that we had the first of two cyclones off of S/E Java which sucked the ash flow from the Mount Agung active volcano down towards the south of Bali and of course to the airport.
Last night my friend, who lives in Seminyak told me they had a large amount of volcanic ash in their swimming pool, whereas we on the east coast had none.
A second cyclone, not as fierce is currently moving it's way along the bottom of East Java and Bali and will dissipate heading south 24 hours from now.
In fact, I'm betting on it and have not changed my travel plans to take my family to Canada skiing in 12 days.
Tourists and Expats should not worry about getting out in or out of Bali , even if you are delayed one day it is no different than being delayed for storms such as snowstorms in North America.