Thursday, November 30, 2017
Jakarta offers second tax amnesty
To address Indonesia’s revenue shortfalls, the government is giving taxpayers another opportunity to report previously hidden assets as lower-than-expected growth hits the state income.
The first nine-month amnesty, which ended in March, exempted Indonesians keeping their cash hidden or overseas from criminal prosecution and imposed a small fine if they declared concealed assets. The tax office had said that once the amnesty ended, the authorities would hunt down unreported assets and impose penalties of 200 per cent of the original tax bills.
However, a regulation issued last week says that individuals and businesses which voluntarily declare assets before tax officers find them would only have to pay the upper limit of standard income tax of 25 per cent for firms and 30 per cent for individuals. A lower rate of 12.5 per cent is applied to individuals with income of below US$47,000 or businesses with earnings of up to US$355,000. The policy is scheduled to be enforced until June 2019.
It was revealed this month that Indonesia’s economy expanded at a marginally slower pace than forecast in the third quarter of this year.
GDP growth for the three months until September grew 5.06 per cent year on year, below a forecast from economists consulted by Reuters of 5.13 per cent. In the second quarter 5.01 per cent year-on-year growth was recorded in the second quarter.
In quarter-to-quarter terms, GDP grew by 3.18 per cent, below than the 3.23-per-cent predicted.
Exports rose 17 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier, with shipments of merchandise goods rising 24 per cent.
Investment growth increased to 7.1 per cent from 5.4 per cent during the second quarter and household consumption grew 4.9 per cent in the third quarter from a year earlier and almost unchanged from the second quarter.
While rising commodity prices has helped deliver double-digit growth in exports for most of 2017 and investment increased, consumer spending and credit growth have been sluggish, despite eight rate cuts during the year. The lower-than-expected growth, when combined with low inflation, has increased pressure on Bank Indonesia to continue to relax monetary policy.
Analyst Gareth Leather of Capital Economics said: “The gradual acceleration in Indonesia’s GDP growth in the third quarter to 5.1 per cent from 5 per cent is unlikely to mark the start of a sustained recovery in the economy. Given the mounting headwinds facing the economy, we expect growth to come in at around 5 per cent over the next couple of years.”
Indonesia’s consumers have been cautious. Picture credit: Wikimedia
Finally a Reliable website for tracking Bali Airport Arrivals and Departures and Status
This caused volcanic ash to redirect towards the airport.
I'm very happy that as I predicted we've shifted back to normal Tradewinds taking the Ash cloud away from Bali and the airport.
From my vantage point looking at the volcano this morning there may not be a similar problem in the near future.
Normal Direction of Agung Ash Flowing from S/W to N/E |
Airport News Very Unacceptable:
Trying to help our guests and ascertain what to do when flights were canceled was a nightmare, especially when most of the time we had unreliable Airport news.
For example, I first heard the Airport was closed on Bloomberg news.
I checked at the official Airport website and they said still open. I actually called up Bloomberg and blasted them for misinformation.
Later I had to apologize after realizing the government website was incorrect.
Yesterday I found the website flight tracker, https://flightaware.com/live/airport/WADD which appears to be more accurate than the government website and more up-to-date.
I have not had time to experiment with this but at this point it looks like it's very good. If you have had a bad experience with Flight Tracker please advise me so that I will not recommend this.
Currently it looks like one of the best if not the best way to track not only incoming and outgoing traffic at the Bali airport but also, of course, whether the airport is open or closed.
.
Wednesday, November 29, 2017
What does the Bali Airport warning level which was just reduced from Red Alert to Orange alert mean?
This does not mean the Bali airport is open yet but does provide some optimism.
Here are what the Indonesian Govt. Airport Alerts mean.
Here are two main volcano warning systems - colour codes, and alert levels.
Indonesia Alert System
Alert Level
|
Criteria
|
Interpretation
|
1
Aktif Normal |
Monitoring of visual, seismicity and other volcanic event do not
indicate changes.
|
No eruption in foreseeable future.
|
2
Waspada (alert) |
Increasing activity of seismicity and other volcanic events, and
visual changes around the crater.
|
Magmatic, tectonic or hydrothermal disturbance, no eruption imminent.
|
3
Siaga |
Intensively increasing of seismicity with supported by other volcanic
monitoring, obvious changes of visual observation and crater. based on
observation data analysis, the activity will be followed by main eruption.
|
If trend of increasing unrest continues, eruption possible within 2
weeks.
|
4
Awas |
Following the main eruption, the initial eruption begin to occur as
ash and vapor. Based on observation data analysis, the activity will be
followed by main eruption.
|
Eruption possible within 24 hours.
|
A supermoon you won't want to miss in Bali this weekend
_
Be very careful on Bali's shores this weekend n Saturday and Sunday at around 9 PM.
There will be super hide tides which will reach 2.7 m which is 70 cm above normal.
There could be coastal flooding and strong waves breaking on rocks.
As always, Better safe than sorry
_________________________________________________
By Brian Lada, AccuWeather meteorologist and staff writer
September 27, 2017, 8:52:52 PM EDT
4. Supermoon — Dec. 3
The only supermoon of 2017 will rise on Dec. 3, shining big and bright in the late-autumn sky.
A supermoon is a term referring to a full moon around the same time that the moon is near perigee, or at the point in its orbit where it is closest to the Earth.
As a result, the moon appears slightly larger and brighter than normal.
(Photo/Brian Lada)
Additionally, December’s full moon will also be called the Full Cold Moon as December is the month when the winter cold fastens its grip, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.
NASA Satellite Photos Reveal Bali Airport May Open Soon - Bali Luxury Villas starting at the village for
Special Eruption Discount starting at $18 per guest per night. |
My Family and I taken yesterday |
Below is information from Nasa
Home
acquired November 27, 2017download large image (284 KB, PNG, 1217x811)
acquired November 28, 2017download large image (282 KB, PNG, 1217x811)
View Image Comparison
Since August 2017, residents of the Indonesian island of Bali have been living with a heightened sense of the uncertainty that comes with living near a volcano. Mount Agung has been rumbling with increasing unrest for more than three months. Activity ramped up with a small ash eruption on November 21, 2017, followed by an explosive phreatic eruption on November 25.
Clouds have so far prevented satellites from capturing visible images of the volcanic plume, but that does not mean the eruption has gone unobserved. Even on a cloudy day, some satellites excel at detecting components in the atmosphere that are invisible to human eyes, such as the sulfur dioxide (SO2) in a volcano’s plume. The gas can affect both human health and climate.
These maps show concentrations of SO2 detected over Mount Agung on November 27 (top) and November 28 (bottom) by the Ozone Mapper Profiler Suite (OMPS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi-NPP) satellite. Turn on the image comparison tool to see changes in the SO2 plume’s magnitude and location.
Simon Carn, a volcanologist at Michigan Tech, noted that the westward motion of the plume is due to the pull of Tropical Cyclone Cempaka south of Java.
Also notice that by November 28, the SO2 plume directly over the volcano appears to have decreased. “It is definitely normal that it should fluctuate a bit,” said Janine Krippner, a volcanologist at the University of Pittsburgh. “But the volcano is definitely not winding down at this point.”
She also notes that the concern now is that there is a clear pathway through which lava can travel to the surface. An “open system” like this one led to deadly lava flows during the volcano’s last major eruption in 1963.
According to a report by the Jarkata Globe, about 100,000 people live on the volcano’s slopes but less than half have evacuated. The eruption has also led to airport closures and the cancelation of hundreds of flights.
References
In the Company of Volcanoes (2017, November 17) Agung Volcano Unrest Information. Accessed November 28, 2017.
ReliefWeb (2017, November) Indonesia: Mt Agung Volcano - Sep 2017. Accessed November 28, 2017.
Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (2017, November 21) Agung. Accessed November 28, 2017.
NASA Earth Observatory image by Joshua Stevens, using OMPS data from the Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC). Story by Kathryn Hansen.Instrument(s): Suomi NPP - OMPS
Tuesday, November 28, 2017
Bali Volcano Eruption - Plan For the Worst and Hope for the Best - Emergency Supplies Lists
Deadly Mount Agung Eruption 1963 |
_1. Grocery Store & Bulk Foods
• Rice
• Legumes: Pinto beans, Black beans, split peas, etc.
• Oatmeal, cornmeal
• Canned Fruits (lots), various canned vegetables & canned tomatoes, soups & stew.
• Milk: Canned/Evaporated, powdered, sweetened/condensed
• Eggs, powdered
• Peanut Butter, nuts, popcorn
• Dehydrated fruits & vegetables
• Jerky, Trail Mix
• Wasa Multigrain flat bread, Graham crackers, Saltines, etc.
• Chocolate, cocoa, Tang, punch
• Honey, syrup,white sugar, brown sugar
• Spices (the basics: salt, pepper, cinnamon, garlic, onion salt, etc,)
• Soy Sauce, vinegar, bouillon cubes or granules
• Canned Meats: Tuna, chicken, Spam, ham, etc.
• Cooking Oil & spray
• Baking Supplies & flour, yeast, packaged muffin mix & pancake mix
• Coffee, tea
• Vitamins, Minerals & Supplements
• Water: Quickly figure 1 gallon drinking water/person/day. As cases of bottled water, or from a filer unit like the ‘Big Berkey’ (Google it), a 55 gallon ‘rain barrel prefilled with public utility water, water purification with household bleach or boiling. Don’t store everything else first and skip the water. You can live a month without food, but only about 3 days without water…start out with the proper priorities.
Breaking News KIM JONG-UN is planning a shock missile launch
Silver Bullion 8:45 Nov 28th 2017 |
By OLI SMITH
10:58, Mon, Nov 27, 2017 | UPDATED: 11:02, Mon, Nov 27, 2017
A leading US thinktank has revealed the exact date for the next North Korean ballistic missile test - and it looks set to come just before Christmas.
Kim Jong-Un will send a terrifying message if he goes ahead with the planned Christmas blast in just over three weeks time.
According to the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the next "provocation" will take place on December 17.
GETTYKim Jong-Un may be planning a shock Christmas missile blast
GETTYSpeculation has been rising over when the next missile launch will take place in North Korea
The shock prediction followed an unprecedented data analysis which showed there was "elevated chances of provocations over the next 14 to 30 days".
Speculation has been mounting over when North Korea will next conduct a missile test after the communist regime has remained quiet for over two months now.
An international expert from the Washington DC-based thinktank said the planned test means a "ballistic missile test expected on 17th of December".
This date coincides with the death of Kim Jong-Un's father, Kim Jong-Il, who passed away nearly six years ago.
The launch will involve a "demonstration of a weapon of mass destruction", which will follow an annual military exercise in the country that month.
GETTYA leading US thinktank has revealed the exact date for the next North Korean ballistic missile test
There is a elevated chances of provocations over the next 14 to 30 days
CSIS spokesman The thinktank institute claims December has usually seen a period of "high missile test activity" by the regime in the past five years.
The absence of any recent missile tests has left international monitors puzzled after no warning was issued following this month's South Korean-US military drills.
To the surprise of outside commentators, North Korea has also not yet responded to the US re-designation of the regime as sponsors of terror.
GETTYNorth Korea has not yet responded to the US re-designation of the regime as sponsors of terror
An official from the hermit kingdom has, however, claimed that North Korea’s nuclear threat is “only aimed at the US” and other countries “should not fear”.
Ri Jong-hyok, the deputy of North Korea's Supreme People's Assembly and director of the National Reunification Institute, attempted to calm World War 3 fears by stating that the rogue nation only has a problem with the United States.
He said: "It's the Korean people's resolute decision that North Korea should face off with the US only with nuclear weapons to achieve the balance of power.
"Our nuclear deterrence is a sword of justice aimed at fighting US nuke and Asia and any country in the world need not worry about our threats as long as they do not join invasion and provocations toward us.”
Monday, November 27, 2017
How Does Bali Volcanic Eruption affect your airline tickets and hotel rooms?
Just a few minutes ago Bloomberg news, which I watch almost all day stated that Bali's airport is closed due to Mount Agung eruption.
Over 50% of the cancellations are Air Asia and a few of them are Lion Air both have reputation of being late most of the time and not making any money.
Could it be because Air Asia had very terrible three quarters financial reports this year and maybe they're trying to save some money?
What happens to the refunds to the customers if they do cancel flights.
Most airlines will allow you to change flights or refund your money!
How Does Volcano in Bali Affect Your Vacation?
A potential volcanic eruption in your destination should deter you from travelling there out of fear of losing your life or facing severe travel delays at the very least. Even if you were to be safe from the magma overflow, volcanic ash alone can also severely disrupt your air travel. As recently as 2010, for example, a volcanic eruption in Iceland caused enormous disruption to air travel across Europe for at least a week. Given this, it's not surprising that the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Singapore issued a travel warning on 23 September 2017, advising Singaporeans to defer their travel to Bali due to possible eruption of Mount Agung. If you have to cancel your travel plans because of Mount Agung, would you be able to ask for a refund?
Your flights will likely be rescheduled or refunded by the airline
Good news is that most airlines will be quite accommodating in response to the travel warnings. For instance, Singapore Airlines and Silk Air have already announced that customers traveling to Bali until Oct 2 that purchased their tickets on or before Sept 22 could rebook or request a refund. Other airlines like Scoot (and Tiger Air), Qantas, Jetstar and Virgin have also announced that they will assist passengers to reschedule their flights without imposing additional fees, subject to availability and fare difference. While some like Air Asia have yet to announce anything similar, most airlines are expected to follow suit.
Other bookings won't be as accommodating
Unfortunately, your accommodation and tour bookings won't be as easy to recover. Since each hotel, activity vendors and travel agencies have their own unique policies, they will most likely not refund your money even if you have to cancel your trip to avoid the impending volcanic eruption. Even if they were to allow you to reschedule your bookings, however, the hotel properties might be inaccessible due to damages to the building or its surroundings.
Would travel insurance have helped?
When your travel plans have to be altered or cancelled because of unforeseen volcanic activities, would purchasing a travel insurance policy have reimbursed for your lost travel bookings? Surprisingly, the answer is not an emphatic "yes." Instead, it really depends on which insurance company's policy you purchased.
As far as we've seen, FWD, Hong Leong Assurance and Budget Direct are few of the major insurance companies in Singapore that will reimburse you for cancellations due to travel warnings from the government. In contrast, many other insurers will specify that their trip cancellation benefit is "only claimable upon the occurrence" of certain insured events. This means that the natural disaster should actually occur before you can safely cancel your travel bookings and claim reimbursement from your insurance policy, and that cancellations due to travel warnings don't qualify for reimbursements.
Screenshot of HLAS (left) and FWD's (right) travel insurance policy document
This is why it's so important for you to read the insurance company's policy wording documents like the ones above before purchasing travel insurance. By doing so, you can make sure that you can actually claim for reimbursements in case certain events that can potentially be a factor in your trip actually occur. As long as you are careful to purchase a policy that is appropriate for your destinations and planned activities, you can actually save a lot of money and pain when unfortunate events alter your travel plans. For instance, a policy from one of the three named insurers above could have not only reimbursed you for your hotel and activity reservations in Bali, but it could have also allowed you to cancel your flights instead of merely "rescheduling" to another date when you may not be able to take days off work.
Value of travel insurance
To be sure, travel insurance isn't a must purchase for all travellers. Not only that, most travellers will rightfully feel that they don't benefit from buying a travel insurance policy. Afterall, even mishandled bags, one of the most common travel inconveniences, only occur 6.96 times per 1,000 passengers, representing probability of about 0.7%.
However, it's times like these that the value of travel insurance really becomes apparent. Random, unexpected events like a volcano eruption can occur and significantly alter your travel plans. While it may not make sense to purchase a travel insurance policy for each trip you make, it may still be advisable to do so when you know your trip faces not-so-insignificant probability of facing certain events like volcano, typhoons or injuries from sports. If you know you will be travelling during typhoon season or that you will be engaged in potentially dangerous sports activities (i.e. snowboarding), spending an extra S$20-S$30 on your trip isn't that big of a cost to give yourself some peace of mind.
Is Bitcoin the perfect Elliot Wave? -If so it is very dangerous
Free Bali Real Estate Seminars Nov 30th. and Dec 2nd. |
Elliott Wave Principle
Degree[edit]
- Grand supercycle: multi-century
- Supercycle: multi-decade (about 40–70 years)
- Cycle: one year to several years (or even several decades under an Elliott Extension)
- Primary: a few months to a couple of years
- Intermediate: weeks to months
- Minor: weeks
- Minute: days
- Minuette: hours
- Subminuette: minutes
Elliott Wave personality and characteristics[edit]
Five wave pattern (dominant trend) | Three wave pattern (corrective trend) | |
---|---|---|
Wave 1: Wave one is rarely obvious at its inception. When the first wave of a new bull market begins, the fundamental news is almost universally negative. The previous trend is considered still strongly in force. Fundamental analysts continue to revise their earnings estimates lower; the economy probably does not look strong. Sentiment surveys are decidedly bearish, put options are in vogue, and implied volatility in the options market is high. Volume might increase a bit as prices rise, but not by enough to alert many technical analysts. | Wave A: Corrections are typically harder to identify than impulse moves. In wave A of a bear market, the fundamental news is usually still positive. Most analysts see the drop as a correction in a still-active bull market. Some technical indicators that accompany wave A include increased volume, rising implied volatility in the options markets and possibly a turn higher in open interest in related futures markets. | |
Wave 2: Wave two corrects wave one, but can never extend beyond the starting point of wave one. Typically, the news is still bad. As prices retest the prior low, bearish sentiment quickly builds, and "the crowd" haughtily reminds all that the bear market is still deeply ensconced. Still, some positive signs appear for those who are looking: volume should be lower during wave two than during wave one, prices usually do not retrace more than 61.8% (see Fibonacci section below) of the wave one gains, and prices should fall in a three wave pattern. | Wave B: Prices reverse higher, which many see as a resumption of the now long-gone bull market. Those familiar with classical technical analysis may see the peak as the right shoulder of a head and shoulders reversal pattern. The volume during wave B should be lower than in wave A. By this point, fundamentals are probably no longer improving, but they most likely have not yet turned negative. | |
Wave 3: Wave three is usually the largest and most powerful wave in a trend (although some research suggests that in commodity markets, wave five is the largest). The news is now positive and fundamental analysts start to raise earnings estimates. Prices rise quickly, corrections are short-lived and shallow. Anyone looking to "get in on a pullback" will likely miss the boat. As wave three starts, the news is probably still bearish, and most market players remain negative; but by wave three's midpoint, "the crowd" will often join the new bullish trend. Wave three often extends wave one by a ratio of 1.618:1. | Wave C: Prices move impulsively lower in five waves. Volume picks up, and by the third leg of wave C, almost everyone realizes that a bear market is firmly entrenched. Wave C is typically at least as large as wave A and often extends to 1.618 times wave A or beyond. | |
Wave 4: Wave four is typically clearly corrective. Prices may meander sideways for an extended period, and wave four typically retraces less than 38.2% of wave three (see Fibonacci relationships below). Volume is well below than that of wave three. This is a good place to buy a pull back if you understand the potential ahead for wave 5. Still, fourth waves are often frustrating because of their lack of progress in the larger trend. | ||
Wave 5: Wave five is the final leg in the direction of the dominant trend. The news is almost universally positive and everyone is bullish. Unfortunately, this is when many average investors finally buy in, right before the top. Volume is often lower in wave five than in wave three, and many momentum indicators start to show divergences (prices reach a new high but the indicators do not reach a new peak). At the end of a major bull market, bears may very well be ridiculed (recall how forecasts for a top in the stock market during 2000 were received). |
Pattern recognition and fractals[edit]
Elliott wave rules and guidelines[edit]
- Wave 2 never retraces more than 100% of wave 1.
- Wave 3 cannot be the shortest of the three impulse waves, namely waves 1, 3 and 5.
- Wave 4 does not overlap with the price territory of wave 1, except in the rare case of a diagonal triangle formation.
Fibonacci relationships[edit]
- Example of the Elliott Wave Principle and the Fibonacci relationship
After Elliott[edit]
Rediscovery and current use[edit]
It is intriguing that the log-periodic structures documented here bear some similarity with the "Elliott waves" of technical analysis ... A lot of effort has been developed in finance both by academic and trading institutions and more recently by physicists (using some of their statistical tools developed to deal with complex times series) to analyze past data to get information on the future. The 'Elliott wave' technique is probably the most famous in this field. We speculate that the "Elliott waves", so strongly rooted in the financial analysts’ folklore, could be a signature of an underlying critical structure of the stock market.[13]
[Magee and Edwards'] Technical Analysis of Stock Trends and The Elliott Wave Theorist both give very specific and systematic ways to approach developing great reward/risk ratios for entering into a business contract with the marketplace, which is what every trade should be if properly and thoughtfully executed.[14]
Criticism[edit]
But Wave prediction is a very uncertain business. It is an art to which the subjective judgement of the chartists matters more than the objective, replicable verdict of the numbers. The record of this, as of most technical analysis, is at best mixed.[17]
The Elliott Wave Principle, as popularly practiced, is not a legitimate theory, but a story, and a compelling one that is eloquently told by Robert Prechter. The account is especially persuasive because EWP has the seemingly remarkable ability to fit any segment of market history down to its most minute fluctuations. I contend this is made possible by the method's loosely defined rules and the ability to postulate a large number of nested waves of varying magnitude. This gives the Elliott analyst the same freedom and flexibility that allowed pre-Copernican astronomers to explain all observed planet movements even though their underlying theory of an Earth-centered universe was wrong.
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