As usual bad news make good press.
See below todays Google News
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Tremors spark fears Bali volcano may erupt
Sky News Australia-21 hours ago
Hundreds of small tremors have raised fears of an impending volcanic eruption on the holiday island of Bali. Authorities have heightened alert ...
Bali earthquake: Fears of volcanic eruption on popular tourist island ...
The Independent-16 hours ago
Fears of a volcanic eruption on the Indonesian island of Bali have been ... 3,000m-high Mount Agung volcano earlier in the week, according to ...
Nor will they report that there there has not been any rise in the warning level for two days .
The last warning was "Indonesia's National Disaster Mitigation Agency yesterday warned tourists and locals to stay 7km away from the volcano, with experts warning it could erupt at any time."
They won't tell you Kuta, Seminyak tourist areas are over 60 km from the volcano and Sanur 40 km .
They also won't report the closest that any dangerous laval flows on the hills or in the rivers came in 1963 was over 50 km away
Bali News and Views Editor's Comments -
Do you need to worry about the current possible eruptions on Bali's Mount Agung.
Last night one of our staff members, who lives not too far from Mount Agung said she couldn't sleep because she felt 30 or 40 tremors around Mount Agung and she was afraid that it was going to erupt.
Although we couldn't feel these tremors 40 km away at my home on the beach I was concerned for the welfare of others within a close proximity to Agung. Her concern made me realize that many people are very worried.
So for the last three hours I did a little research on what happened during the worst explosion of Mount Agung ever in 1963.
Many locals died because they did not not have Mobile phones, Facebook or Twitter to keep them advised of the latest warnings.
As can be seen on the chart below is the actual flows of different categories including the actual lava, the faster and more dangerous Pyroclastic Flow and Lahar Flows.
Today I am starting to see some of the news coming out in the world news as per below. I know from past events they will spin it out of sight. Bad news makes good press. The press will make it look like Bali is about to explode.
Having lived in Bali for 21 years and seeing Mount Agung almost every day plus having lived in Hawaii for an additional eight years I can tell you that volcanoes are blown way out of proportion.
As a former Yacht Capt. in Bali for five years I'm very familiar with the Tradewinds at this time of the year.
The only thing we can learn from history is we may be doomed to repeat it.
Hopefully we are not doomed to repeat the disastrous 1963 volcano eruption that took thousands of lives, primarily because the locals did not have any information at the time.
Today we have very modern reporting by the Bali government who are right on top of the situation changing the warning levels to suit the activity of the volcano.
I just spent the last two hours patching together past flows, including Pyroclastic flows, which are the worst because they come quickly and kill people immediately.
It important to note that this a very rough sketch prepared in a hurry and is not scientific.
The reason I'm not concerned, although I live within 30 km from this volcano is the fact that the Tradewinds this time the year are flowing from East to West.
Therefore, any Pyroclastic flows, which are the most dangerous consisting primarily of gas should be blown away from where I live, and in fact from the entire southern Bali area where 90% of the population and tourists reside.
As can be seen if this was to explode now the persons that are most likely jeopardy are some of the areas to the north and the northwest of Agung.So before the press spins this way out of context take a look at the chart yourself, use common sense and don't panic.
Tourists coming to Bali, most likely have nothing to fear.
In fact Tourists may be provided with a rare once in a lifetime view of a live volcano.
I have personally walked on top of lava on the big Island of Hawaii and it is not as scary as it seems.
All you scientific nuts please be aware that none of this information, including the chart is proven scientific knowledge and only to be used as a general understanding of what's going on. So keep your skepticism to yourself.
On the other hand, your welcome to make valid comments.
1963-64 eruption
On February 18, 1963, local residents heard loud explosions and saw clouds rising from the crater of Mount Agung.
On February 24, lava began flowing down the northern slope of the mountain, eventually traveling 7 km in the next 20 days.
On March 17, the volcano erupted (VEI 5), sending debris 8 to 10 km into the air and generating massive pyroclastic flows.
These flows devastated numerous villages, killing approximately 1500 people.
I have personally walked on top of lava on the big Island of Hawaii and it is not as scary as it seems.
All you scientific nuts please be aware that none of this information, including the chart is proven scientific knowledge and only to be used as a general understanding of what's going on. So keep your skepticism to yourself.
On the other hand, your welcome to make valid comments.
1963-64 eruption
On February 18, 1963, local residents heard loud explosions and saw clouds rising from the crater of Mount Agung.
On February 24, lava began flowing down the northern slope of the mountain, eventually traveling 7 km in the next 20 days.
On March 17, the volcano erupted (VEI 5), sending debris 8 to 10 km into the air and generating massive pyroclastic flows.
These flows devastated numerous villages, killing approximately 1500 people.
Cold lahars caused by heavy rainfall after the eruption killed an additional 200. A second eruption on May 16 led to pyroclastic flows that killed another 200 inhabitants.
The lava flows missed, sometimes by mere yards, the Mother Temple of Besakih. The saving of the temple is regarded by the Balinese people as miraculous and a signal from the gods that they wished to demonstrate their power but not destroy the monument the Balinese faithful had erected.
Andesite was the dominant lava type with some samples mafic enough to be classified as basaltic andesite.
Lahar is an Indonesian term that describes a hot or cold mixture of water and rock fragments that flows down the slopes of a volcano and typically enters a river valley. Small seasonal events are sometimes referred to as "debris flows", especially in the Cascades.
Sept 19th 2017Lauren McMah@lauren_mcmah
AUSTRALIANS in Bali are being warned to avoid the area around Mount Agung in the island’s north amid fears it could erupt.
Indonesian officials have more than doubled the size of the no-go zone around the Mount Agung volcano and raised its alert level for the second time in less than a week, the Associated Press reported.
The volcano, about 72 kilometres from Kuta, is a popular tourist destination and hiking spot.
Indonesia’s National Disaster Mitigation Agency said residents and tourists should stay 6 kilometres from the crater and up to 7.5 kilometres away to the north, southeast and south-southwest.
The agency said all community activities were restricted from the exclusion zone and residents should be prepared to evacuate.
It said there had been a continuing increase in seismic activity and blasts from the crater, of around 50 metres high, had been spotted.
More than 1100 people were killed when the volcano last erupted in 1963, sending ash about 10 kilometres into the sky.
Phil Sylvester from Travel Insurance Direct said tourists should take the warnings of Indonesian authorities seriously.
Indonesian officials are preparing for a possible eruption of Mount Agung. (File image.) Picture: Wikimedia Commons/Adam CarrSource:Supplied
“They have issued an alert about the possibility of a new eruption and warned people to stay away — villagers, farmers as well as tourists who hike to the top. It’s a popular tourist destination,” he said.
“Clearly they believe an eruption could be imminent.”
Mr Sylvester said tourists should learn from last year’s eruption of Mt Rinjani on the island of Lombok. Some 1000 people were on the mountain when it erupted, despite warnings to stay away.
“We all know what happened when Mt Rinjani erupted last year,” he said. “The ash cloud caused the closure of Denpasar airport for weeks at a time and thousands of people were stranded, either unable to come home or unable to get to their holiday.
“School holidays start next week, Bali is going to be chockers full.”
Mr Sylvester said Travel Insurance Direct had already received calls from travellers asking if it was too late to take out insurance before their trip to Bali.
“Here’s the beauty of it: no, it’s not,” he said.
“The thing hasn’t erupted yet. There is no ash cloud. This is not in insurance terms ‘an event’ — not yet anyway.
“So yes you can buy travel insurance today and be covered if it goes off tomorrow, or next week.”
Gunung Agung 1963 Eruption
The February 1963 to January 1964 eruption of Gunung Agung, Indonesia’s largest and most devastating eruption of the twentieth century, was a multi-phase explosive and effusive event that produced both basaltic andesite tephra and andesite lava.
A rather unusual eruption sequence with an early lava flow followed by two explosive phases, and the presence of two related but distinctly different magma types, is best explained by successive magma injections and mixing in the conduit or high level magma chamber.
The 7.5-km-long blocky-surfaced andesite lava flow of ∼0.1 km3 volume was emplaced in the first 26 days of activity beginning on 19 February.
On 17 March 1963, a major moderate intensity (∼4 × 107 kg s−1) explosive phase occurred with an ∼3.5-h-long climax.
This phase produced an eruption column estimated to have reached heights of 19 to 26 km above sea level and deposited a scoria lapilli to fine ash fall unit up to ∼0.2 km3 (dense rock equivalent—DRE) in volume, with Plinian dispersal characteristics, and small but devastating scoria-and-ash flow deposits.
On 16 May, a second intense 4-h-long explosive phase (2.3 × 107 kg s−1) occurred that produced an ∼20-km-high eruption column and deposited up to ∼0.1 km3 (DRE) volume of similar ash fall and pyroclastic flow deposits, the latter of which were more widespread than in the March phase.
The two magma types, porphyritic basaltic andesite and andesite, are found as distinct juvenile scoria populations.
This indicates magma mixing prior to the onset of the 1963 eruption, and successive injections of the more mafic magma may have modulated the pulsatory style of the eruption sequence.
Even though a total of only ∼0.4 km3 (DRE volume) of lava, scoria and ash fall, and scoria-and-ash pyroclastic flow deposits were produced by the 1963 eruption, there was considerable local damage caused mainly by a combination of pyroclastic flows and lahars that formed from the flow deposits in the saturated drainages around Agung.
Minor explosive activity and lahar generation by rainfall persisted into early 1964.
The climactic events of 17 March and 16 May 1963 managed to inject ash and sulfur-rich gases into the tropical stratosphere.
The 1963–1964 eruption of Agung volcano (Bali, Indonesia).
Available from: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/257428344_The_1963-1964_eruption_of_Agung_volcano_Bali_Indonesia [accessed Sep 19, 2017].
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